Author: /u/bordomsdeadly

I was flipping through trying to figure out the best roster we could take into the playoffs, and man is our pitching stacked.

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For a Rotation I think

1. Verlander
2. Framber
3. Javier
4. Odo

with Garcia & Urquidy being used in tandem starts with Odo & Javier because they both have trouble regularly getting deep into games.

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I gave Odo the last spot even though I think Garcia deserves it more because I think Odorizzi out of the Pen is a nightmare.

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LMJ moves into the pen because I don’t trust that he can be built back into a reliable starter getting deep in games coming off a serious injury in August. We can stretch him back out this spring and let him join the rotation next year.

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I believe Lance can really help the pen with multi inning relief and flexibility, can be used in high leverage situations.

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For the pen I think we let Montero be the traditional closer.

Hear me out. Presley in a fireman role is statistically more advantageous. Would you rather him face 2,3,4 in the 8th, or 6,7,8 in the 9th?

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I want him facing the better batters

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That leaves Stanek as the Set Up man

Maton & Neris as Middle Relief

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and our 13th spot is a bit up in the air. Ideally we’d want LHP here, but we don’t really have any.

Adam Morgan may be our best option depending how the injuries to our staff work out.

His upside is a little better than average.

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If not him either we trade for LHP or we let Abreu and Martinez battle it out for the last spot.

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For position players it’s a bit easier

C. Maldy

1B. Yuli

2B. Altuve

SS. Peña

3B. Bregman

LF. Brantley

CF. Meyers

RF. Tucker

DH. Yordon

Backup C. Castro….

This leaves 3 Bench Spots

1. Dubon (CF/LF/Middle IF)
2. Diaz (IF/LF)
3. Open

I’d like to replace Diaz honestly, Mattijevic is getting a shot right now, but I don’t think he will be ready for the playoffs.

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The “Open” spot will probably go to Siri or McCormick

Outfield Defense is clutch late in games and speed on the base paths doesn’t hurt either.

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In an ideal world Yainer Diaz gets it figured out and can play 1B & C competently, but I’m unsure if he manages or not.

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Goodrum is another option here because he is tearing it up in AAA and likely gets the September Call-up spot to try to prove his worth to us one last time.

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Finally, I know Castro isn’t popular here. However, Justin Verlander is better when Castro catches

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Verlander’s Stats –

89.1 IP – 22 ER – 84K – 16 BB – 10-3 W/L – 2.22 ERA – 8.46 SO/9 -1.61 BB/9 – 5.25 K/BB

When Maldy Catches (8 games) –

50.2 IP – 17 ER – 46K – 9 BB – 5-2 W/L (1 ND) – 3.02 ERA – 8.17 SO/9 – 1.6 BB/9 – 5.11 K/BB

When Castro Catches (6 games) –

38.2 IP – 5 ER – 38K – 7 BB – 5-1 W/L – 1.16 ERA – 8.44 SO/9 – 1.63 BB/9 – 5.43 K/BB

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Verlander is a true Bona fide Ace. And 3 catchers isn’t unheard of.

If Verlander wants his own personal Catcher you let him have his personal Catcher and carry 3.

That’s why I’m hopeful for Yainer, he can play first and C to allow defensive flexibility with a 3rd catcher.

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I know this post is long, so I will make a separate post just talking about Castro and why he belongs on the team.

The Astros/Colt .45s have never finished a season with a franchise W/L Record Over .500

They came very close in 2005 (-6) & 2006 (-4)

However, we are currently 4,761-4784 (-23)

If we can finish the season 101-61 (+40) or better we will, for the first time finish over .500 for the first time ever!

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We have had an over .500 franchise record in season a couple times.

4/10/196 2- 4/21/1962 & 4/24/1962 – 4/25/1962 (peaking at +3)

And again from 4/22/2006 – 5/7/2006 (peaking at +4)

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We’ve also been .500 Mid-Season a handful of times :

4/22/1962

4/26/1962

4/18/2006

4/21/2006

5/8/2006

5/12/2006

5/14/2006

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Here is a list of how we have done over every “Stage” of our Franchise

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Astros/Colt .45s – Pre Division – 474-658 (-184)

Astros – NL West – 1999-1990 (+9)

Astros – NL Central – 1526-1486 (+40)

Astros – AL West – 762-650 (+112) So Far

I did the Siri has benefited greatly from a high BABIP, where as McCormick has been hurt by a low BABIP. McCormick walks more and strikes out less, has more power, and a higher projected batting average.

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I figured the likeliness to get on base, and the contact rate and power of our hitters to determine what should yield the most runs, if all of the guys played the rest of the season like they have until this point.

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It Would be:

1. Altuve His .400 wOBA tops the team, making him the most likely to reach base.
2. Yordan (or Brantley if you’re a traditionalist) he would bat .293 based on current projections with a 14.7% walk rate, and the second highest wOBA on our team, he is our best batter, and modern metrics suggest putting them second
3. Brantley (or Yordan for traditionalists) hits the ball in play 77% of the time, would be great at moving over runners on base, 5th wOBA on team, lacks power, Walks more than he strikes out
4. Tucker 4th highest wOBA, 4th highest ISO, Good combo of power, and puts the ball in play 68% of the time. Great for driving in runs
5. Bregman .340 wOBA, right behind Tucker, a slightly higher projected Batting Average, But has less power, I’d rather him potentially lead off the second than bat with 1 on and 2 out, Very Good Walk to Strikeout ratio
6. Peña (this is a coin toss between him and Yuli) 3rd Highest wOBA is good, but he strikes out a lot 1/4 of the time, as well as my projected average is only .265 because his BABIP luck is insane so far, I may be punishing him a bit much because he has good speed, that’s why I gave him the spot over Yuli
7. Yuli I project him to improve to .268 BA from this point onward, but he only has a wOBA of .280, and is slightly below average in power. If we could get the Yuli from last year, that would be great. But this year’s Yuli, while still looking productive, seems to have his age catching up to him he has also slipped to 9th in wRC+
8. McCormick Siri has benifited greatly from a high BABIP, where as McCormick has been hurt by a low BABIP. McCormick walks more and strikes out less, has more power, and a higher projected batting average.
9. Martin (Machete) Maldonado a lower wOBA than Castro, a higher projected average, a higher ISO, a lower walk rate, but also a lower strikeout rate. he also puts the ball in play almost 18% more than Castro. Simply put, with a man on, and less than 2 outs you want Maldonado at the plate, not Castro.