Author: /u/bordomsdeadly

I was feeling like Tucker kinda fell off a cliff this year mid season. So i went to look at his stats and see what was holding him down this year.

His Baseball Savant Page doesn’t look bad either.

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His Walk Rate is up, with his Strikeout Rate sitting just a tick higher than last season.

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His BABIP is .250

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Tuckers “X” Stats vs his regular stats all look good too

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	Average	OBP	Slugging	OPS	wOBA
X Stats	.269	.356	.493	.849	.369
Regular Stats	.247	.334	.458	.792	.343

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Now these aren’t just Straight up MVP Stats, we all know this.

But, MLB players peak between ages 26-29 on average

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Tucker will be 26 years old next season.

26 is also when Bagwell jumped from star to Super Star as well.

The stats I showed above are more or less last place mvp vote type guys. They get somewhere between 11-20 fairly often. Altuve got 18th place last year with a slightly worse line.

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So what’s so special about next year? They are restricting the shift.

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Tucker is poised to have a fantastic year next season if balls start finding their way through the infield more often.

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This may mean nothing, it may mean something, only time will tell.

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In the mean time, just keep an eye out on Kyle Tucker next season, don’t be surprised if he ends up in the MVP discussion.

I did the math for what it would likely take for Altuve to hit 3,000 hits.

He doesn’t seem like as much of an “he will easily hit it” candidate as he once was, but I still think he is statistically likely to do it.

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In his prime Altuve’s average was 20%-30% higher than someone his age, with 2 years almost 40% above batters his age.

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This is important because I base his % above the average for his age to project his totals.

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He could very well easily out perform these numbers, that is OK. This is more of a conservative projection.

*** Note my average player BA may be off by a point or 2 because I am eyeballing it off of a graph. 1 or 2 points shouldn’t have a major outcome on this chart***

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Age	AVG Player BA	Altuve BA	Altuve % Better than AVG
21	.218	.276	26.6%
22	.225	.290	28.8%
23	.233	.283	21.5%
24	.239	.341	42.77%
25	.244	.313	28.3%
26	.248	.338	36.3%
27	.251	.346	37.8%
28	.253	.316	24.9%
29	.254	.298	17.3%
30	.250	.219	(-)12.4%
31	.247	.278	12.6%
32	.244	.286	17.2%

Now, this is only BA, Altuve seems content hitting for more power these days, he has an OPS of 149 this year, meaning he is still 49% better than average, but his BA is 17.2% better than average for a 32 year old.

Altuve is on Pace for about 137 games this season, and 520 ABs, lets round to 150 Hits

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That would give him 1927 Career hits. Now, Pujols’ ABs stayed relatively consistent through age 37, so I will assume that’s what Altuve’s do also.

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Excluding, Rookie Year, Current year, and Covid year Altuve averages 148 games a season and 3.755 AB per game. Lets dial it back to 145 games, which gives us about 545 ABs a year through age 37.

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If we assume Altuve is able to stay 15% better at putting the ball in play through age 37 on average then we get

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Age	AVG Player BA	Altuve Projected BA	Projected Hits at 545 ABs
33	.240	.276	151
34	.235	.270	147
35	.229	.264	144
36	.221	.254	139
37	.215	.247	135

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This means I project 716 hits between ages 31 – 37

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That would give him a projected 2643 through age 37. Still pretty good.

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Now, Based again off Pujols Ages 38 & 39 will drop 10% of ABs per year, while ages 40-42 will drop 16.67% of ABs per year.

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I will also relax to 10% better than the average player his age due to aging curve and speed loss.

Age	AVG Player BA	Altuve Projected BA	Projected ABs	Projected Hits per year
38	.208	.229	495	114
39	.200	.220	450	99
40	.192	.211	386	82
41	.185	.204	331	68

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This gives him 363 hits from ages 38 – 41. That results in 3,006 Hits in his career.

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That’s a realistic conservative path to 3,000 for Jose Altuve that leaves him retiring at the same age as Craig Biggio did.

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I honestly don’t think Altuve will taper that hard either, but I didn’t want a large bias to influence this.

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The shift being reduced next year also helps Altuve’s chance of getting some extra hits before he starts to get into the back end of age regression.

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Player	ERA	FIP	xFIP	ERA+ (ERA -)	bWAR (fWAR)
Odorizzi	3.75	3.61	4.61	104 (99)	0.1 (1.2)
Smith	4.38	5.22	4.77	97 (105)	-0.6 (-0.5)

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Player / Splits	AVG Against	OPS Against	ERA	K	BB	IP (Batters Faced)
Odorizzi V Left	.218	.650	5.04	16	10	30.1 (123)
Odorizzi V Right	.243	.609	2.43	30	7	29.2 (122)
Smith V Left	.222	.695	3.95	17	5	13.2 (59)
Smith V Right	.250	.801	4.64	24	16	23.1 (112)

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This move is probably a Loss on paper for the Astros, but it’s pretty clear The Astros want a guy to face Lefties, and they think Smith is fixable. He’s “only” 32 & is having his career worst year after being consistently above average for his Career.

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When you consider what’s replacing Odo (LMJ / Hunter Brown? / 5 Man rotation) this really isn’t much of a loss.

The Houston Astros have 71 games remaining after the All Star break.

39 Home, & 32 Road

The average win percentage of the teams is .478

The Astros current percentage is .648

Averaging those 2 numbers together puts at 40 wins (99 on the season)

We are better at home, so we have a good chance at 100 (101 is the number I’m hoping for)

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The Teams remaining are:

1. NYY – 2 Home Games
2. SEA – 4 Home – 3 Road
3. BOS – 3 Home
4. TEX – 6 Home – 2 Road
5. OAK – 7 Home – 3 Road
6. MIN – 3 Home
7. BAL – 3 Home – 4 Road
8. LAA 3 Home – 3 Road
9. ARI – 2 Home
10. TB – 3 Home – 3 Road
11. PHI – 3 Home
12. CLE – 4 Road
13. CWS – 4 Road
14. ATL – 3 Road
15. DET – 3 Road

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If we are able to win 101 games that would make the first time we have ever finished a season with a franchise record over .500 & it would make us the only expansion franchise with a record over .500

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The Angels & Blue Jays are both within 50 games of .500

I’m going to preface with, I will not do this everyday. decided to do it today just because every starter has started twice in the last 10 games (Was Not the case yesterday)

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That Said, here is how our team pitching has performed over the last 10 games

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Starters:

——————GP—–IP— H—R—ER—BB—-K—-W—-ERA ——K/9—— BB/9——- WHIP——-K/BB

Javier———–2—– 12— 2— 1—-1—–5—-18—-2—-0.75—–13.50——3.75——-0.5833———3.60

Framber——-2—– 14—8— 3—-3—–5—-12—-1—-1.93——-7.71—— 3.21—— 0.9286——–2.40

Verlander—–2——15—6—-1—-1—- 2—–9—- 2—-0.60——-5.40——1.20——-0.5333———4.50

Garcia———-2—–10.1–9— 4—-4—- 3—-11—-2—–3.48——-9.58——-2.61——1.1617——–3.67

Urquidy——–2——13—-5—-2—-2—- 4—–8—–1—–1.38——-5.54——2.77——-0.6923——-2.00

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Bullpen:

——————GP—–IP— H—R—ER—BB—-K—ERA —K/9——- BB/9—–WHIP—K/BB—S—-H—-BS–L

Stanek———5——-4—-4—-0—-0—–4—–6—0.00—-13.50——9.00—–2.00—–1.5—–0—-3—-0— 0

Neris———–5——-5—-2—-2—-2—–2—–4—3.60—–7.20——–3.6——0.80—–2.0—- 0—-5—-0— 0

Pressly——–6——5.1—3— 4—-4—– 3—–8– 6.75—-13.51——5.07—1.1257– 2.67—-5—-0—-1— 1

Montero——5——-5—-3—-0—-0—–2—–5—-0.00—-9.00——-3.60—–1.00—–2.5——1– -4—-0—0

Maton———3——2.2—4—3—-3—–3—–6—12.27—20.22—–10.11—2.6712–2.00—-0—-1—-1—-0

Abreu———-2——1.1–2—0—-0——0—–3—-0.00—20.30——0.00—-1.5038—Inf.—-0—-0—-0—- 0

Martinez——2——1.2–2—3—-2——1—-2—-10.78–10.78——5.39—-1.7964—2.00—0—-0—-0—- 1

Paredes——-1———1–2—1—-1——2—-0—–9.00—0.00——-18.00–4.0000—-0—— 0—-0—–0—-0

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As a whole that leaves the Bullpen and Rotation as a whole looking like.

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Rotation:

GP—-IP——- H—- R—-ER—BB—K—- ERA——-K/9——BB/9——–WHIP—-K/BB——QS—DS

10—64.1—–30—-11—11—19–58—-1.54——-8.11—–2.66——–0.7617—-3.05——-7—–5

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Bullpen:

GP—-IP——- H—- R—-ER—BB—K—- ERA——-K/9——BB/9——–WHIP—-K/BB——S—–Hold—-BS——L

29—-26——-22—13—-12—17–34—-4.15——11.77— 5.88———-1.50—–2.00——6—— 10——-2——2

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Total Pitching:

IP———- H—-R—-ER–BB– K—- ERA——-K/9——BB/9——–WHIP—–K/BB

90.1——-52–24—23—36–92—–2.29——9.17—–3.59———0.9742—-2.56

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Over this time our rotation is 8-0 and our Bullpen is 0-2

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This is 1 game Against the White Sox

4 Games against the Mets

5 Games Against the Yankees

EDIT:

Sorry it looks like this.

Future updates on this will look cleaner

I tried something new to try to save time, and Reddit Decided the formatting I typed it out in wouldn’t show up once I hit submit.

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I didn’t have enough time to do it any better and still finish it today after that setback

Our Starting pitching has been amazing in this short span of games.

Our Starters combined line is:

62.2 IP – 14 ER – 55 K – 17 BB – 36 H – 2.011 ERA – .8457 WHIP – 7.96 K/9 – 2.44 BB/9 – 3.24 K/BB

In those 10 starts here is how they break down per pitcher:

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Verlander:

3 Games – 18.2 IP – 5 ER – 12 K – 2 BB – 15 H – 2.41 ERA – .9106 WHIP – 5.93 K/9 – .984 BB/9 – 6 K/BB

Valdez:

2 Games – 14 IP – 3 ER – 12 K – 5 BB – 8 H – 1.93 ERA – .9286 WHIP – 7.71 K/9 – 3.21 BB/9 – 2.4 K/BB

Urquidy:

2 Games – 13 IP – 2 ER – 8 K – 4 BB – 5 H – 1.385 ERA – .6923 WHIP – 5.54 K/9 – 2.77 BB/9 – 2 K/BB

Javier:

2 Games – 12 IP – 1 ER – 18 K – 5 BB – 2 H – 0.75 ERA – .5833 WHIP – 13.5 K/9 – 3.75 BB/9 – 3.6 K/BB

Garcia:

1 Game – 5 IP – 3 ER – 5 K – 1 BB – 6 H – 5.4 ERA – 1.7143 WHIP – 9 K/9 – 2.4 BB/9 – 5 K/BB

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Bold Indicates pitcher was the best at that stat in the rotation

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I’m not going to list every bullpen pitcher in the lat 10 days, but I will list the combined stats

Bullpen:

28 App. – 27.2 IP – 11 ER – 31 K – 22 BB – 23 H – 3.58 ERA – 1.662 WHIP – 10.26 K/9 – 7.42 BB/9 – 1.41 K/BB

That’s a noted drop off, but still solid production with 1 or 2 bad outings really dragging it down.

Our overall team pitching line looks like:

90.2 IP – 25 ER – 86 K – 39 BB – 59 H – 2.49 ERA – 1.0877 WHIP – 8.57 K/9 – 3.89 BB/9 – 2.21 K/BB

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Lastly, we are averaging per game,

Starters:

6.2 IP – 1.4 ER – 5.5 K – 1.7 BB – 3.6 H (That’s a Quality Start, almost Dominate Start on average)

Pen:

2.2 IP – 1.1 ER – 3.1 K – 2.2 BB – 2.3 H

Combined Pitching:

9.1 IP – 2.5 ER – 8.6 K – 3.9 BB – 5.9 H

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***Disclaimer, due to rounded decimal places, exact stats may vary slightly, but should be very close to my calculations, just gotta pick a decimal place to work out to with division and multiplication***