Author: /u/bingmyname

I know I’m going to get flamed for this but considering what some members of the media are saying about the offense it might be good for Mills to get extra help. Apparently Cooks looks like the only real and consistent receiving threat. The TEs are “moving in slow motion” and the other WRs are inconsistent. This doesn’t bode well for Mills’development. Maybe we can get Emmanuel Sanders. Yes he’s a bit older but maybe that’s why he’ll come for cheap and be a mentor. Idk I’m not a big fan of the depth behind the top 3 receivers (Cooks, Metchie and Collins). He might still have a year of solid play left in the tank and it’s still early so there’s no problem cutting ties if he stinks.

Best Player: Brandin Cooks

Worst Starter: Eric Murray

Slept on: Tytus Howard (media and “experts” kept saying we need to draft a tackle)

Breakout: Nico Collins/Brevin Jordan

Most Excited to Watch: Davis Mills/Jalen Pitre

What about y’all?

https://www.audacy.com/sportsradio610/podcasts/clint-stoerner-29133/what-clint-saw-from-davis-mills-at-otascsats-05-24-22-1432099791

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As the conductor of the Davis Mills hype train I think this is a valid criticism. For summary, basically he’s saying Mills tends to be a little timid or hesitant in his throws and it may be from overprocessing or something else. That was his concern from what he saw from Mills today and previously and I have to agree. I’ve noticed this since his first games as a rookie where it seemed like he would make a good read but not pull the trigger and that could have been for a multitude of reasons. I do think he got better throughout the year but he stilled lacked that swagger and confidence behind a lot of his throws and it can sometimes just look flat. The good news is that I think he’s still so young from the QB perspective who’s only had limited starts since HS compared to other QBs that this is something that’s very fixable. It’s also only day 1 OTAs so we’ll just hope he gets more confidence and assurance in his decision making and throws so he looks more refined and plays ahead of the game which is where he needs to make a leap this year imo.

If Mills takes that leap forward and our young guys play decently, I could see us having a top 14 offense but I’m still predicting a bottom 20 defense. Anyways, looking at the schedule I could see the season happening a few different ways:

1. Absolute floor to me is (6-10):

vs Colts: L

vs Broncos: L

vs Bears: W

vs Chargers: L

vs Jags: W

vs Raiders: L

vs Titans: L

vs Eagles: W

vs Giants: W

vs Commanders: W

vs Dolphins: L

vs Browns: L

vs Cowboys: L

vs Chiefs: L

vs Titans: W

vs Colts: L

This one is probably the most realistic but the NFL is so week to week, momentum matters and things can get funny. With that being said I see 2 more possibilities:

1. Mills catches his stride around mid season and carries the offense resulting in (9-8):

vs Colts: L

vs Broncos: L

vs Bears: W

vs Chargers: L

vs Jags: W

vs Raiders: L

vs Titans: L

vs Eagles: W

vs Giants: W

vs Commanders: W

vs Dolphins: W

vs Browns: W

vs Cowboys: W

vs Chiefs: L

vs Titans: W

vs Colts: L

1. I swapped out the oceans with Kool Aid and everything goes our way (12-5):

vs Colts: W (upset game they won’t see our new offense coming and they lost their D Coord.)

vs Broncos: W (Russel not yet comfortable, new HC hasn’t found groove)

vs Bears: W

vs Chargers: L

vs Jags: W

vs Raiders: W (They have a good offense but keep losing pieces on defense)

vs Titans: L

vs Eagles: W

vs Giants: W

vs Commanders: W

vs Dolphins: W

vs Browns: W

vs Cowboys: W (Cowboys are renowned for losing games out of nowhere)

vs Chiefs: L

vs Titans: W

vs Colts: L

And originally I thought it was edge, which in all fairness, it still is a key factor. But one thing I didn’t think about before was about how poorly our LBs played the run. You could argue how you want your DTs to eat up more blocks or whatever but our LBs constantly looked lost in the run game. Wallow, brother… good lord that man was lost. I’ve only watched back 2 condensed versions of the jags and Titans game but I could easily see this being a problem all year.

Instead of just individual stats, I think I’ll be looking at the overall efficiency of the offense to evaluate Mills and Pep. Personally I’ll be looking at a few things:

YPC, 3rd down conversion, how often we’re at 3rd and long vs 3rd and short, red zone scoring pct., points per game and TOP. Here’s some comparisons for our average of last year, our last 3 games and what I’d like to see at minimum:

YPC:

Average – 3.4 (32nd)

Last 3 – 4.0

I’d like to see 4.4 YPC this year since they insist this will be a run first offense and looking at Mills’ college tape (he said the first installs have been familiar to what he did in college), the run game will be a big part of the offense. 4.4 ypc would have been top 15 last year.

3rd Down Conversion Percentage:

Average – 39.75% (16th)

Last 3 – 46.15%

I’d like to see us pick up from where we left off but that’s really efficient. It would be 3rd just behind Kansas and Buffalo. However I would still like to see us in the 40%+, being closer to that 46% in oppose to 39%.

Red Zone Scoring %:

Average – 51.35% (27th)

Last 3 – 62.50%

Again if we continue where we left off, we’d be tied with Tennessee for 9th. For reference, Buffalo, who was first, had a percentage of 66.28% so I think 62% is a nice and fair expectation.

PPG:

Average – 16.5 (30th)

Last 3 – 24.3

Definitely need to improve here. 24.3 would have landed us right above Tennessee in the 14th spot. I would like to see ~22 PPG if we’re going to dominate TOP through the run game. That’s ahead of LV (21.8) and behind Baltimore (22.8) which is 18th. Not a high expectation so it’s fair given that it’s a run first offense that still has ways to go. Another thing to note is that at home, we had an average of 20.3 PPG but in away games we had only 12.1 PPG 😬.

TOP:

Average – 28:14 (28th)

Last 3 – 30:36

Our last 3 average would have put us ahead of NE and just behind NO for the 14th spot. The best team in this metric was GB (32:36) so if we have a run first offense then I want to see 30:36 as the floor as we should be improving in most of these metrics.

TLDR: I wanna see us do better by various team metrics including PPG, TOP, 3rd down rate and RZ rate.

After Mills said the first installs he’s seen from Pep’s offense are familiar to him from his time at Stanford, I went back and watched some of the offensive snaps Stanford had when Mills was starting. I’ve also been trying to watch as much of Pep’s offense from his time with the Colts and in the XFL that I can. With that, I think there are 2 receivers who could really suit the Texans well.

1. Treylon Burks: They’ve already showed interest in him, meeting at the combine I believe and inviting him for a visit. He certainly fits. The scheme honestly doesn’t seem to cause a lot of separation so you’ve got to be good at the point of catch. Also Pep likes short, quick passes, getting his guys in space so they can get YAC. Lots and lots of screens at Stanford. Burks is a YAC monster apparently.

2. Wan’Dale Robinson: Probably can get him in round 3 or later, which makes me doubt he’ll end up here but if he does it’ll make a lot of sense. Texans may run a lot of 12 and 22 personnel but they’ll still be running spread offenses as well and could use a shifty slot receiver who’s really good at those screens they want to run. He is small and has concentration drops so maybe he’ll fall a bit more but idk.

Personally hoping for a mix of speed, size and YAC ability for this offense.

Based on everything that’s been said about how the Texans operate and how they would like to build their team, based on Albright’s tweet speculating draft landings and based on the athleticism, film and how these guys play- if I had to guess who we end up drafting in day 1, I would guess Travon Walker and Andrew Booth Jr.

Now this is just my best guess at this point but to me it makes a lot of sense to guess that and here’s why:

Travon Walker is that selfless team player they keep talking about. They want someone with a great work ethic and who understands teamwork and Walker actually shows on film being selfless, setting up other guys and fulfilling defensive duties. He’s also a freak athlete with lots of size and versatility. Sounds like the exact kind of guy they want and he’s at a major position of need that can change the run defense with his presence alone.

Andrew Booth Jr. I can’t help but think they will love him every time I see him because of his willingness to tackle, his awareness and how he constantly makes plays in space- great for pass defense but also for run defense. A true outside corner who may still be there when they make their selection. He’s got man coverage abilities and can play zone, although he’ll definitely need more attention there apparently.

This is just my guess based on fit and the things that have been said. This is not who I want although I won’t be mad if this is the haul. Personally I want Ikem and Garrett most but I trust the Texans scouting staff, Lovie and Caserio way more than myself when it comes to this stuff.