I’m sure every Texans fan who hasn’t been living under a rock for the past 6 months knows that the media has been clowning on us constantly because we’re an easy target. And perhaps rightfully so, having seen BoB’s choke job in the playoffs against the Chiefs and his GM moves that everyone but the homerest of homers would agree are questionable at best, tragic at worst.
But next season we will be facing the KC in week 1 and Baltimore in week 2, each led by the respective MVPs of the last two seasons. Mahomes, Jackson, and Watson in these last 3 years have took the league by storm, and are without a doubt the new generation of elite quarterbacks who will terrorize the AFC for the next two decades.
That being said, us Texans fans know that the media has been sleeping on Watson, always slotting him in as the 3rd best young quarterback behind Mahomes and Jackson. Mahomes especially, having been drafted only 2 spots above Watson, has taken all eyes off of Watson.
But unlike Mahomes and Jackson, who both had the privilege of developing a year behind veteran quarterbacks and under the tutelage of HoF-caliber head coaches, Watson was forced to start immediately on a team with an average HC and a broken O-line.
Yet in only 7 games and 6 starts as a rookie, Watson put up 19 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns. Watson put up a staggering 9.3% passing touchdown percentage. Were it not for some freak practice injury and Watson was able to maintain his pace, he would have finished the season with 43 passing touchdowns and 5 rushing touchdowns. Watson was Mahomes before Mahomes himself.
For comparison, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson put up 8.6% and 9.0% passing touchdown percentages in their respective MVP seasons.
To take it a step further, the only quarterback to EVER put up a higher passing touchdown percentage than Deshaun Watson did in 2017 while starting an entire season is Peyton Manning in 2004 at 9.9%. Let me repeat: EVER!!!
That being said, instead of DeAndre Hopkins, Lamar Miller, and Carlos Hyde, this season we have Brandin Cooks, David Johnson, and Randall Cobb. Now some Texans fans may object to this, but the fact is that on paper our skill position players have undoubtedly gotten worse. And naturally the media, who often fail to see the bigger picture, took this as an opportunity to hound on the Texans, projecting us to go 7-9 and 3rd in the AFC South.
But another way to look at it is that this group of players are potentially a much better scheme fit than before. This last year it has become very apparent that Bill O’Brien has a very particular vision of how he wants to mold the Houston Texans going forward. He wasn’t afraid to spend large amounts of draft capital and money on players he believed fit his scheme and let go of players that didn’t. Examples are Clowney, Tunsil, Duke Johnson, Hopkins, David Johnson, and Brandin Cooks. David Johnson in particular is an especially interesting case because he was an elite RB in 2016 under Bruce Arians’ system, but has never regained his former glory since while under Kingsbury’s system. He got benched for Kenyan Drake, and it makes a lot of sense to assume that it was to at least some degree because of scheme fit rather than pure talent.
But let’s now talk about the BoB’s biggest move this offseason, a move that made Texans fans weep tears of sorrow and Cardinals fans tears of joys from the perspective of scheme fit. DeAndre Hopkins is undoubtedly a top 3 receiver in the league, and his “replacement” Brandin Cooks undoubtedly isn’t.
There’s no doubt that for a young quarterback getting adjusted to the league, having a top receiver is an invaluable asset to that quarterback’s development, especially one such as Hopkins who has a reputation of masking poor quarterback play. But as a quarterback gets more comfortable in the NFL, it’s possible that having a top receiver can become less of an asset and more of a crutch, potentially even hindering the quarterback’s development.
Watson admitted himself that during the Oakland game in 2019 where he threw a touchdown after getting kicked in the eye, he was too focused on looking for Hopkins, and he was only able to nail a touchdown to Taiwan Jones after the Raiders D-line forced his hand.
So while I still think we got WAY too little in return in trading Hopkins, I don’t think trading him in theory was the wrong move. Were we to get the 2 firsts that everyone expected we could get from trading Hopkins, the trade would undoubtedly be looked upon in a much more positive light. One could see it as Bill O’Brien taking off Watson’s training wheels by trading Hopkins, forcing Watson to move to his 2nd and 3rd read.
And if O’Brien’s moves work, his 2nd and 3rd read will be there. Cobb, David Johnson, and Duke Johnson can take care of the short game. Stills and Coutee can cover the intermediate. Fuller and Cooks can stretch the field. What we gave up in top-heaviness we acquired in depth.
Speaking of depth, let’s also talk about Brandin Cooks’ fit in O’Brien’s scheme. Cooks is notorious for being able to produce consistent and impressive numbers, but never being able to elevate himself into the top-tier WR conversation because of his limited route tree.
That being said, there’s a saying in the NFL that if you are able to do one thing so well, in this case running a route, then it doesn’t really matter if you can’t do other things because you can always win by doing that one thing better than anyone else. This is a bit of a hyperbole, but in an offense where all the other holes have been plugged up, I would say it applies to Brandin Cooks very well. Because of our depth, all he needs to do is stretch the field along with Will Fuller.
How important is it that the Texans and Deshaun are able to stretch the field? Let’s find out by going back to Watson’s passing touchdown percentage numbers, this time with and without Fuller on the field. With Fuller playing, Watson in 3 years threw 51 touchdowns in 700 attempts for a 7.14 TD%. Without Fuller playing, Watson threw for only 20 touchdowns in 447 attempts for a 4.25 TD%. In his rookie year in particular, with Fuller playing, Watson threw for a mindboggling 12.9 TD%.
Former Texan and now Chiefs defensive star Tyrann Mathieu, when asked who was his toughest matchup in 2019, said “Will fuller was my toughest match up personally last season.” This lines up well with what Watson said in his interview with Brian Baldinger and Kurt Warner. Will Fuller being on the field affects the opposing team’s defensive scheme much more than it affects the Texans offensive scheme.
Obviously Watson becomes explosive when Fuller is playing. Problem is, half the time, he isn’t. Enter Brandin Cooks, another injury-prone speedy receiver who performs best when he’s not the team’s clearcut WR1. In New Orleans, he played with Michael Thomas. In New England, he played with Gronk. With the Rams, he played with Woods and Kupp. If Fuller is out 50% of the time and Cooks is out 50% of the time, then simple probability will tell you that the Texans will be able to field one speedy receiver on average 75% of the time.
And don’t forget that Bill O’Brien has been reconstructing the Texans O-line from the ground up these last two years. With the additions of Tunsil, Howard, and Scharping, the Texans O-line jumped up to top 10 in pass protection last season, while remaining pedestrian in run blocking. At first glance, O’Brien’s reasoning for this is obvious: Deshaun gets hit way too much and the Texans know from watching the Colts that you gotta protect your franchise quarterback.
But there’s another aspect that nobody has talked about and explains why it is so important to O’Brien that he gained full roster control. Just like it is clear to us, it is clear to BoB that Watson excels in deep passing and kinda sucks in the short game. But as we’ve learned from observing the Browns last season, having talented, speedy WRs isn’t enough to develop the deep passing game. You also need to have a competent O-line to protect the quarterback while the receivers are running their routes (or route, in the case of Brandin Cooks).
Yes, my bold theory is that while everyone was laughing at Bill O’Brien, he has been scheming up a plan in these last 2 years that is finally coming into fruition. A plan to build a high-octane passing offense perfectly customized to take advantage of Watson’s skill set. An audacious plan for the purpose of challenging the two colossi that currently rule the AFC.
And this season, we will be able to get front-row seats to O’Brien’s symphony when the Texans face the Chiefs and the Ravens in weeks 1 and 2 respectively. These two weeks, depending on how badly we lose them or how gloriously we win them, will set the stage for anxious Texans fans to figure out if we suck like everyone in the media has been saying, or if we are dark horse Superbowl contenders who will make the media eat their words.
So to you, my dear Texans fan, I say start stocking up your Kool-Aid reserves as you just might need it.
(Reposting because I messed up some stuff in the first post)
