The playoffs are approaching, and while we’re certainly close to locking up a playoff spot, it’s not quite secured yet. In fact, we can still land in any seed aside from 1st, and could still miss the playoffs.

So here’s the situation for this week:

Clinching a Playoff Spot

This is incredibly simple this week. The Texans can clinch either the AFC South or a wildcard spot through some simple win loss scenarios:

Texans Clinch the AFC South with:

• Texans WIN @ Buccaneers

OR

• Saints WIN @ Titans

Texans Clinch at least a Wildcard spot with:

• Steelers LOSS @ Jets

If the Texans and Steelers were to lose this week, and the Titans win, then Week 17 Titans @ Texans will likely decide who wins the AFC South and who is a wildcard team.

Adding on a loss that week for the Texans would mean the Texans would be the 6th Seed and play the winner of Week 16’s Buffalo @ New England game on the road for Wildcard weekend.

The Titans could still miss out on the playoffs in this scenario if the Steelers beat the Ravens in Week 17.

Path to a 1st Round Bye (2nd Seed)

The Texans do have a possible path to a 1st round bye in the playoffs, dependent on AFC East game results.

Here are the games the Texans need to go in their favor through the next two weeks to make this happen:

Week 16 Needs

• Texas WIN @ Buccaneers

AND

• Bills WIN @ Patriots

AND (Conditionally)

• Chiefs LOSS @ Bears (If the Chiefs lose to the Chargers in Week 17 this would not be needed)

Week 17

• Texans WIN vs. Tennessee

• Dolphins WIN @ Patriots

AND

• Jets WIN @ Bills

AND (Conditionally)

• Chargers WIN @ Chiefs (If the Chiefs lose to the Bears in Week 16 this would not be needed)

These game results would guarantee the 2nd Seed for the Texans with the note that we would only need one Chiefs loss out of the two games listed. Of course the catch here is that it relies on the two weaker AFC East teams beating the two strongest AFC East teams on the road in Week 17.

Path to the 3rd Seed

The path to the 3rd Seed is pretty simple- it relies on the Texans ending the season with a record equal to or better than the Chiefs.

The Chiefs currently have a one game lead on the Texans, so this means that any of the following scenarios would suffice:

Path 1

• Texans WIN either Week 16 @ Buccaneers or Week 17 vs. Titans

AND

• Chiefs LOSE Week 16 @ Bears

AND

• Chiefs LOSE Week 17 vs. Chargers

Path 2

• Texans WIN Week 16 @ Buccaneers
• Texans WIN Week 17 vs. Titans

AND

• Chiefs LOSE Week 16 A Bears or Chiefs LOSE Week 17 vs. Chargers

If either of these paths are met, the Texans have the 3rd Seed, and will likely play the Titans or Steelers at home in the Wildcard round.

If not, the Texans will be the 4th Seed and play the loser of Week 16’s Bills @ Patriots matchup at home.

Path to Missing Playoffs

So I do have to include this one because it’s still a possibility. Granted, it does require a lot of particular pieces to fall, so let me outline that.

The Texans will miss the playoffs with the following:

Week 16

• Texans LOSE @ Buccaneers
• Titans WIN vs. Saints
• Steelers WIN @ Jets

Week 17

• Texans LOSE vs. Titans
• Steelers WIN @ Ravens

In this case, the Titans take the AFC South with a better record than the Texans, and the Steelers take over the last wildcard spot (the first going to either the Bills or Patriots) with one more win than the Texans.

tl;dr/ Week 16 Rooting Guide

Here are the games to watch this week and who to root for:

• Texans over Buccaneers (Saturday 12:00PM CT – NFLN)

Texans secure at least 4th Seed with a win

• Bills over Patriots (Saturday 3:30PM CT – NFLN)

Texans out of contention for a playoff bye if Patriots win

• Saints over Titans (Sunday 12:00PM CT – FOX)

if not secured in Texans game, Texans secure at least 4th Seed with a Saints win

• Jets over Steelers (Sunday 12:00PM CT – No Broadcast)

if not secured in Texans or Titans games, Texans secure a playoff spot with a Jets win

• Bears over Chiefs (Sunday 7:20PM CT – NBC)