Astros Struggles vs Losing Teams: Fact or Fiction Part 2
Happy off-day everyone! A few days ago I posted about the narrative of the Astros struggling vs losing teams using MLB.com's records, which uses FINAL season records for W-L vs >.500 teams. Here's a link for anyone interested.
Today I looked at this narrative from a different angle; looking at the W-L record post-trade deadline with CURRENT (at the time) season records for 2021-2023. I did this for a couple reasons:
- My first post was very general and acted more as a vague summary. I wanted to zoom in on a specific criteria/category.
- After the trade deadline, it becomes obvious for most teams if they are competing or punting the season. So clearer distinctions between winning and losing clubs.
Now a rule I used: a team has to be at least 3 games below or above .500 for me to have tallied it in the W-L record. My reason being if the Astros sweep or get swept by the opposing team, the W-L will not flip-flop between sub/above .500 status. Luckily this only affected 3 or 4 series in total. As always, this system is not perfect and it uses a much smaller sample size but it's meant to act as a compliment to the original post. So here's what I gathered:
| Year | W-L >.500 (WP) | W-L <.500 (WP) |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 11-13 (.458) | 17-12 (.586) |
| 2022 | 18-12 (.600) | 20-6 (.769) |
| 2023* | 15-11 (.577) | 6-9 (.400) |
*As of 9/21/2023
Post-trade deadline, the Astros did better vs <.500 teams in 2021 and 2022, but not this year (as we are all well aware I'm sure). I think this says more about the state of the Astros each season more than anything. Does this support my original verdict of the Astros playing down to their competition being fiction? Mostly, I'd say. Obviously this year it's looking true but overall the Astros are still doing much better vs weaker opponents than >.500 ones.
What are your thoughts? What other criteria would you like to see? Please show some mercy as I am not a statistician; just a guy who got very curious over a random topic.
TLDR; Astros have done well vs <.500 teams after the trade deadline until this year
submitted by /u/KingJacobyaropa
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