AR v. Stroud Mechanics and Why AR Can Fix His Inconsistencies (And Why Stroud Should Be QB3)
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TL;DR: Anthony Richardson's mechanics issues are a simple (but not easy) fix. The simplicity of this fix, in the context of his GENERATIONAL athleticism/running ability, makes him a better QB prospect than CJ Stroud, which in turn should make him QB2 for Texans fans, and why you shouldn't be surprised or mad if we take him over Bryce Young, even if Bryce Young is the better QB right now. I haven't really kept up with the AR posts recently, so I'm sorry if this is adding to the overflow, but there's a lot of comments on AR's "accuracy issues" with people hyper-fixating on the comp% of AR. This post is mainly going to speak on AR's mechanics by comparing them to CJ Stroud's as well as showing how they can be fixed. Just to be clear: This is not an argument for CJ Stroud being a worse QB at this point in time, but an argument for why AR is the better prospect. This is not an argument for why AR is the best QB in the draft; that title belongs to Bryce Young. What this is, is an argument for why Anthony Richardson is the best QB prospect in the draft, and why that means he should be QB2 for everyone. This is also an argument for why picking AR over BY is not as far-fetched as some think. And lastly, just so we are completely clear, this is how I see the QBs in this draft w/comps (I won't justify them on this post):
The videos (one attached to post, one in comment) come from this year's combine with them throwing to identical routes. The video of AR is him missing high, the video of CJ is him throwing a dart on the money. So, what does everybody say about AR's mechanics? They mainly say that he has inconsistent lower body mechanics, and his lower body gets too out of sync with his upper body, causing him to overcompensate with his upper body. This causes misses. The good thing about AR's mechanics is that they are a CONSISTENT miss, meaning that he is repeating the wrong motion every time. When AR misses in-game, it is pretty much always a high miss or–when he is throwing left–an over-lead to the left. The consistency in his misses tells me that this is fixable because it is a mechanic issue that were it fixed, he would no longer have these misses. This is opposed to somebody who misses all over the place, not knowing how to lead his receivers, not knowing where to deliver the ball to. AR knows exactly where to place the ball, but the execution isn't there. Again, that means that once his mechanics are fixed, he will automatically become a very good passer, because he will be able to execute what he knows/wants to do. You might say, "Okay, so what. If he can't do it now, there's no reason to think he can do it in the pros. You showed the problem, but that doesn't mean he can fix them." Here's what I have to say to that. There are two main differences that you will see b/w C.J.'s and AR's mechanics: foot alignment and release point. Watch AR's video and pay close attention to where his hips/feet point to, and where his hand is when the football leaves his hand, then watch C.J.'s with the same ideas in mind. You'll see that relative to where the ball ends up, AR is severely open with his hips/feet alignment. This is a problem I've noticed in-game as well. This openness will cause a lot of problems going to the left, because the amount of opening needed for him to throw the way he usually throws isn't doable and he loses balance and essentially falls to his left. Also, because AR's feet/hips are open, he overcompensates by releasing the ball as far away from his body as possible while still throwing rotationally. This causes an incredibly high release point, which raises the starting point of his throw, causing him to miss high. If you compare Tom Brady to AR, it is much easier to see how high AR's release point is. Here is a clip from an instructional video showing TB12's mechanics (you should watch the whole video, but this is just a clip): https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxU2KyLAAFeWnZWeIeOw-GntCQl_g3j_5k. TB12's is much lower, and he also has a lot more rotation in his palm and extension of his arm to the target than AR does. It's not easy, but it is fixable. CJ has the correct mechanics, so does BY, but AR is not really that far off from having really good mechanics either. You also have to take into account that he has had a full year less experience from the other top 4 QBs, so a more level ground to compare AR to the other 2 is to compare their first years. I'm still going through CJ's, but I'm seeing a lot of misses that are pretty much the same as AR's in CJ's first year, except CJ had JSN, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson to help with the comp%. It is really hard to look bad in the Ohio State offense (Exhibit A: Dwayne Haskins RIP). BY has overcompensated for his height by having one of the most advanced QB minds coming into the draft in NFL history. AR went 0 passing TDs (3 rushing TDs) and 4 INT's in his first 3 games as a starter, then proceeded to go 17 passing TDs (6 rush TDs) and 5 INTs in his last 9 games. So he improved even within the season, and within certain games as well. If you take all that into account, plus his GENERATIONAL athleticism (he's as big as Cam Newton, but more explosive and faster according to combine measurements as a QB), and the fact that Cam Newton didn't even complete 60% of his passes in his 15-1, SB berth, MVP winning season, AR looks a lot closer to being really good in this league than most people think. All of those things is why AR is a better prospect and why he should be drafted over Stroud. Oh, and if I can see all this, and learn this from watching YT and game tape, then I am extremely confident in Jerrod Johnson's and Bobby Slowik's ability to spot and correct these mechanics issues as well. They are a simple fix, but they aren't necessarily easy. However, AR's "Special Work ethic And Relentless Mindset" (he wants to be like Pat Mahomes and Tom Brady, one of the greats) makes me more than confident that he will work incredibly hard to fix those issues (and he's already said as much that he is aware of these issues and is working on them already). For more info, there's some links below for good instructional videos on correct throwing mechanics using Tom Brady as the model, as well as what I consider to be the most balanced analysis of AR by J.T. O'Sullivan (a 10 year [NFL] QB, spent mostly as a backup, but did start occasionally). Videos on Correct Throwing Mechanics using TB12 as the Model: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0-WmfrPW6g https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piDxL32woEM&t=604s J.T. O'Sullivan's Analysis of AR vs. UTenn: submitted by /u/RottenOxford |
