Anticipating a mild week, we look ahead to Thanksgiving

Good morning. We’ll have one more night in the 50s tonight before warmer weather returns—Houston has not had a nighttime temperature in the 60s since November 5th. Cooler weather should arrive just before the weekend. Don’t forget, we’re continuing our annual fundraiser this week—so far your support has been amazing and we really appreciate it.

Monday

With calm winds and high pressure, Monday will have some very pleasant fall weather on offer. Expect highs in the low 70s, mostly sunny skies, and a mild night in the 50s. Enjoy!

Tuesday

A moderate onshore flow should begin Tuesday, and this will lead to a bit warmer, and bit more humid conditions. We can safely expect highs to climb into the mid- to upper 70s, with mostly sunny skies. Lows on Tuesday night should only fall to around 60 degrees for most of Houston, albeit warmer along the coast, and slightly cooler inland.

Wednesday and Thursday

The flow from the Gulf of Mexico should increase by the middle of the week, and at some point Wednesday we should transition from mostly sunny, to partly sunny, so mostly cloudy weather. Highs on both days will reach into the upper 70s—and test my suggestion that Houston could be done with 80-degree temperatures this year. Lows by Wednesday night probably will only fall into the low to mid-60s. Some slight rain chances return for both days, but accumulations where rain does fall should be very light.

Friday

At some point, toward the end of the week, the region’s next cold front will push through Houston. But the global models seem split on whether that will happen on Friday, or Saturday morning. This matters quite a bit for Friday’s weather, as an earlier front would mean cooler and breezy conditions, and a later front means warmer and more humid weather. Bottom line is that the front will probably bring 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain whenever it trundles through Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

Again, Saturday’s weather includes the caveats about the front’s timing. But for now, we expect a pair of days with lows in the low- to mid-60s, mostly sunny skies, and nighttime temperatures probably somewhere in then 40s. It has the look of another beautiful fall weekend for the region.

Next week and Thanksgiving

Temperatures should recover into the 70s by Monday or Tuesday of next week, and then all eyes will turn toward the Thanksgiving holiday. Right now, the bet is that the region’s next next cold front will arrive just before Thanksgiving. A look at the latest European model ensemble run shows about 60 percent of the members with lows in the 30s and 40s on Thanksgiving morning, another 20 percent or so in the 50s, and about 20 percent in the 60s.

The GFS models has a similar 60-40 split in favor of a strong-ish cold front by Thanksgiving. So at this point the odds favor a cool and crisp holiday, but it is by no means a guarantee, or even a high probability.