An early look at the Atlantic hurricane season as windy, warm weather continues
We are only a little more than a month away from the beginning of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, and the early indications are that we will see yet another busy season in Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Phil Klotzbach released his first extended range forecast earlier this month, predicting 19 named storms, or about 25 percent above-normal activity. Then, on Wednesday, Klotzbach shared another data point. The latest modeling suggests that the Pacific Ocean is likely to fall into a La Niña pattern during August, September, and October.
The issue here is that when La Niña forms in the Pacific, inducing a general cooling of sea surface temperatures near the equator there, it tends to increase Atlantic hurricane activity by making conditions more favorable for tropical systems to develop and strengthen. Seasonal forecasting is not perfect, of course, but with hurricane season rapidly coming upon us, this is your reminder to start making preparations. Accordingly, the State of Texas is having a sales tax holiday this weekend for emergency supplies, from April 23 to April 25. Full details are here.
Thursday
Conditions today will once again, you guessed it, be windy and warm. Look for highs in the mid-80s with partly sunny skies. Winds will blow from the southeast at about 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph or so. With dewpoints near 70 degrees, it will feel plenty sticky outside. Overnight lows are unlikely to fall below 70 degrees on Thursday night.
Friday
See Thursday’s forecast.
Saturday
The first half of the weekend will bring more of the same conditions, with highs in the 80s and partly to mostly sunny skies. However, as we’re caught between low pressure and high pressure systems, expect winds to be that little bit stronger on Saturday. We might see gusts of 30 mph or higher at times. Over night lows will again not fall much, if any, below 70 degrees.
Sunday
Winds will relax a little bit on Sunday, but there will still be a persistent southeasterly flow to go along with our mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s.
Monday and beyond
Confidence is reasonably high in a front approaching our region on Monday and bringing some widespread (and much needed) rain showers to the region. Early guidance indicates that the better rain chances will be inland of Interstate 10, rather than along the coast, but we shall see. It’s my hope that most of the area picks up an inch or so of rainfall, but some of us will very probably see less than that. The rains are needed as our region slides toward a severe drought, which I’m guessing Matt will probably discuss on Friday. Lows will probably drop to around 60 degrees with some drier air for a couple of days after the front.
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