All 11 draft picks from the first ten rounds have signed. Astros will have a maximum of $1.25 million to sign 11th round pick, Ryan Clifford, the 92nd ranked prospect overall.
Lefty high school outfielder Ryan Clifford is one of the better prospects of the Astros class. Though he is an 11th round pick, he is the 3rd highest ranked prospect in the Astros class. The Astros will attempt to go overslot to sign him. He is currently committed to play at Vanderbilt, but has stated that he "expects to sign with the Astros."
Briefly, a team's bonus pool is made up of their picks in the first 10 rounds. Each pick has a slot value attached to it, but teams are able to sign players under or over slot to move money around the draft. Players drafted in the 11th or later rounds like Clifford do not count towards the bonus pool for signings under $125,000. But anything above that must be drawn from the overall bonus pool. So let's take a look at the Astros draft and signings:
| Round | Name | Position | Class | Slot Value | Signed For | Over/Under Slot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Gilbert | OF | JR | $2,621,700 | $2,500,000 | -$121,700 |
| 2 | Jacob Melton | OF | SR | $1,104,100 | $1,000,000 | -$104,100 |
| 2C | Andrew Taylor | RHP | JR | $807,200 | $807,200 | $0 |
| 3 | Michael Knorr | RHP | SR | $594,600 | $487,500 | -$107,100 |
| 4 | Trey Dombroski | LHP | JR | $443,900 | $443,900 | $0 |
| 5 | Nolan DeVos | RHP | JR | $331,600 | $197,500 | -$134,100 |
| 6 | Collin Price | C | SR | $257,500 | $122,500 | -$135,000 |
| 7 | AJ Blubaugh | RHP | JR | $202,900 | $172,500 | -$30,400 |
| 8 | Tyler Guilfoil | RHP | SR | $170,300 | $122,500 | -$47,800 |
| 9 | Brett Gillis | RHP | SR | $157,200 | $97,500 | -$59,700 |
| 10 | Zach Cole Jr. | OF | JR | $149,600 | $97,500 | -$52,100 |
| TOTAL | $6,840,600 | $6,048,600 | -$792,000 |
So the Astros signed two of their 11 picks at slot value, but the rest were all under slot deals. This should give them the flexibility to sign Clifford.
An additional piece of information is that clubs can go over their bonus pool money to sign players. Going over by 0-5% means the club will get charged a 75% fee on top of the overage. Going over by more than 5% triggers a loss of draft compensation and isn't really realistic.
So without the overage, the Astros will have the $792,000 in slot savings in addition to the $125,000 signing bonus allotted to 11th round and later picks. This means they have $917,000 with which to sign Clifford, without going over the bonus pool. However, I suspect it might take a little more than that. Caden Dana, the 119th ranked prospect drafted in the 11th signed for $1.5 million. Ashton Izzi, the 120th ranked prospect signed for $1 million. And 91st ranked prospect Nick Morabito signed for $1 million. These were all high school guys. So somewhere in that range between $1-$1.5 million is likely what lands Clifford.
Going up to 5% over bonus pool brings the entire bonus spend from $6,840,600 to $7,182,630. Subtract out $6,048,600 already spent on signings and you get a remaining $1,134,030. In addition to this, you still have the $125,000 allotted for 11th round and later picks. This leaves you with up to $1,259,030 with which to sign Clifford. Of course the overage ($342,030 in this case) is subject to a 75% tax. So the Astros would have to spend an additional $256,523 in order to go over the bonus pool limit to the max allowable of 5%. What happens if they can't come to terms with Clifford? The Astros also drafted another high school bat in the later rounds: Isaiah Jackson, an outfielder committed to Arizona State, in the 18th round. Not as highly touted as Clifford, Jackson ranks in the mid 200's as a draft prospect. Clifford is the primary target, but if they are unable to sign him, my guess is that they turn those funds toward Jackson instead of letting them go to waste.
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