A Look at the Defense (Long Post)
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Defensive Summary In the previous offseason, Nick attacked the defense bringing in Autry, Fatukasi, Hunter, Al-Shaair, Bullock, and Lassiter as potential new starters. Two were great, one was solid, one had some rookie issues but also flashed, and the other two weren’t very good. For the first time since 2018, PFF had us as a top 10 defense. We were solid in pass rush, coverage, average in run defense and abysmal at tackling. It wasn’t as much about the number of missed tackles (which ranked 10th fewest) but when those occurred (in the open field that lead to big plays). We took a step forward on defense in 2024 but there are some improvements that can and need to be made to make us into a true Super Bowl contender. Interior Defensive Line Last offseason, Nick spent big on the DL. Folorunso Fatukasi, and Mario Edwards Jr; Some thought Autry might play inside but he ended up playing almost exclusively on the edge. Mario Edwards Jr. ended up being the most impactful of the signing and he really wasn’t all that great. The interior DL was the worst unit on defense. No one on the line finished with better than a 60.0 overall grade, meaning they all provided negative value; although the bulk of our IDL finished with between a 56.2 and 58.6 overall grade. Tim Settle was the highest overall rated at 58.6. Our run defense and tackling was abysmal. Hinish fished as the best graded run defender at a 56.0 and Fatukasi finished with the best tackling grade of 56.9. The rest of our IDL fished with tackling grades below 50.0. Although, this wasn’t out of the norm for our defense. Overall, we ranked poorly in tackling. Normally I would go player-by-player but for iDL, I can be lazy. Togiai, Settle, and Edwards were basically all rated the same in all four categories. Bad against the run, bad at tackling and good at pass rushing. Hinish was slightly better at run defense and worse as a pass rusher compared to those three. Fatukasi was the Kenyon Green of the iDL. He was ranked basically last at everything except for pass rushing, which he ranked 97th out of 143. This is an area that needs to drastically improve next year. Hinish, Edwards Jr, and Fatukasi are all free agents. Fatukasi has 2.083 MM in void money that will carry forward. I’d expect to see a complete overhaul of the interior in free agency with at least one draft pick, most likely multiple being made for the iDL. Tim Settle and Tommy Togiai are both free agents after next year and we don’t have any iDL under contract for 2026 or beyond. Togiai only has 50k in dead money if he is cut and Tim Settle only has 1.000MM. Cutting Settle would save 3.000 MM. It is not out of the question that everyone on the iDL could be replaced this year. Edge Last offseason, we invested heavily in our edge rushes. We resigned Derek Barnett to a 1 year deal and brought in Danielle Hunter and DeNico Autry on a 2 year deals. With Will Anderson Jr. improving on his rookie year, we had a very deep edge group the combination of WAJ and Hunter were arguably the best in the league. Will Anderson Jr. Improved on his rookie year in counting stats, PFF grade, and rate stats. His 51 pressures ranked 25th in the league and 12 sacks ranked 7th in the league. WAJ did this playing in only 14 games and in one of those games, against the Jets, he played only 8 snaps. If he would have been healthy all year, he would have challenged Trey Hendrickson for most sacks in the league. Anderson Jr. is an all around stud. If he keeps improving, he’ll be talked about in the same Tier as Myles Garrett, Micha Parsons, TJ Watt, Aiden Hutchinson and Nick Bosa. Danielle Hunter was brought in on a 2 year, 49.000MM contract last offseason. He paired well with WAJ forming one of the best duos in the league. Hunter had a similar PFF grade as WAJ, the same number of sacks (12) but generated more pressures (66). Hunter was a slightly better pass rusher while WAJ was a slightly better run defender. Both are elite. Hunter only has one year left on his contract and then he’ll be a UFA with 12.400 MM in void money. He’ll be a likely candidate for an extension and restructure of his 2025 salary to free up cap space. He’ll be 31 next year but has made the Pro Bowl in 5 of his last 6 seasons; the only season he didn’t, he was hurt and played only 7 games. In only two out of his nine seasons, has he missed time; 2 games his rookie year (weeks 2 and 3) and 10 games in 2021 (last 10 of the season due to a torn pectoral muscle). He’s a player I’d bet on to age well and still. Derek Barnett was resigned to a one year contract after coming to Houston late in 2023 and putting up elite PFF grades (90.5 overall). He took a step back in 2024 but still was a very valuable depth player on the edge. His overall 74.6 grade is solid with similar splits against the run and pass rush. With a bit of a troubled pass, I don’t see him garnering a long term, high money deal and would love to see him back in Houston next year. He made some big plays and lead the league in big man touchdowns. I believe his presence allowing WAJ and Hunter to rest while still attacking the OL contributed to their success. With a depth piece like Barnett, offenses didn’t get many easy plays. DeNico Autry signed a 2 year / 20.000 MM contract with 10.500MM guaranteed at signing. He was supposed to provide an interior pass rush with versatility to play all over the line. Autry missed 7 games with a knee injury and when he played, he wasn’t very impactful. He finished the year with a 56.0 overall grade, 53.8 run defense grade, 54.8 tackling grade and 61.0 pass rush grade. At 35 years old and a downhill trend in overall grade, I don’t see him making a huge difference on this team. If he’s cut pre June 1st, he’ll save us 5.794MM in 2024 cap and 3.000MM in 2025 cap. If he’s designated a post June 1st cut, he’ll save 8.794MM in 2024 cap and have 3.000MM in 2025 dead cap. With his production and cap hits, I don’t see him on the team in 2025. Dylan Horton iproved on his overall grade in his second season. This is largely attributed to being better against the run (51.8 grade in 2023 to a 70.7 grade in 2024). He’s below average as a pass rusher but provides value on a rookie contract in run defense. Jerry Hughes saw a huge reduction in snaps this year, some due to a hip injury and some due to lack of productivity. He’ll be 36 next year and is a free agent. It seems likely he retires and if he doesn’t, we shouldn’t attempt to resign him. Linebacker Linebacker was a bit of a weird position for us. Everyone missed time and only three players (To’oTo’o, Al-Shaair, and Hewitt) played over 176 snaps. It’s hard to tell what impact the injuries had. Overall this is a unit that could use upgrades, although our three presumed starters are all under contract next year and two are under contract for 2026. Henry To’oTo’o played the most snaps out of any linebacker and was much improved in his second year. He improved on his run defense, tackling, pass rush, and coverage grade. In 2023, he looked lost and struggled as you would expect a rookie to. In 2024 he was an average linebacker who was all around decent against the run, in pass rush, and in coverage. He didn’t excel in any one category and wasn’t a liability either. He’ll need to take another step forward in 2025 for us. Al-Shaair was brought in to lead the defense and it was clear when he was on the field, he did that. But he missed 3 games with a suspension and 3 games with a knee injury. 2024 was his best graded year for his overall grade, tackling, and run defense grade. Sadly each were a downgrade from Blake Cashman’s 2023 season for us. With two more years on his contract, he’ll continue to lead our defense. Hopefully he improves but 2024 might be his ceiling. I don’t see him getting much better in coverage. Maybe another year learning from Demico will give us gradual gains. 2024 was a complete write off for Christian Harris. He only played in 3 games regular season games and 8 snaps in the playoffs. His game scores of 79.2, 46,6, 25.2, and 45.3 were about as poor as you can get from a linebacker. Harris took a step forward in 2023 from 2023 improving his overall grade from 28.3 to 60.1. He made huge strides in coverage (29.6 to 66.0) and run defense (29.1 to 48.5) but in 2024 his coverage grade fell to 38.7. When healthy in 2023, Harris had 4 elite grades of 80.0+, 2 solid grades of 65.0 +, 3 average grades of 55.0-65.0 and 7 abysmal grades of below 50. Even in college, he was very hot and cold, so this seems to be a trend with him. I’d like to blame his poor 2024 on the calf injury. We’ll need depth behind him incase this is a trend and he’s just bad. 2025 is a contract year for him and with what I’ve seen, hopefully he comes back healthy, balls out and then we let him walk with his replacement already on the roster. I think we look at linebacker early in the draft as his eventual replacement. Neville Hewitt was brought back on a one year contract and provided decent depth behind Harris. He’s not the type of player you want starting for a long period of time but are fine with as a rotational piece. Hewitt was much better in coverage than against the run this last year which was a reversal of splits from his previous time in Houston. At 32 years old, I don’t see his market being deep and think we’ll end up bringing him back on a short term deal with not a lot of guaranteed money. We tired to bring in Devin White as a replacement for Harris and in half the number of snaps as Hewitt, he was much worse overall. He did get better after his first two weeks (grades of 29.3 and 28.6) but overall had much better production in games where he had limited snaps. At only 27 years old, he doesn’t seem like he should be cooked. With as many free agents as we have at linebacker, he’s a candidate to bring back on a low guaranteed money deal, similar to Hewitt. Maybe getting a full off-season with the coaching staff will pay dividends. But like Hewitt, if he leaves I won’t be heart broken. In a contract year, Jake Hansen overall played well as Al-Shaair’s backup. He was very good against New England, Green Bay, and Baltimore, while being near a replacement level player against Indy, Dallas, and Miami. In his 3 year career in Houston, he’s gotten better each year and been consistently good against the run and inconsistent in coverage. Like our other free agents at linebacker, I don’t see his market being strong. Knowing the defense, the coaching staff and showing he has played well when needed, I hope we bring him back on a two year deal. To’oTo’o and Al-Shaair are the only locks for the 2025 roster. We’ll need to bring in some depth in free agency, whether that’s resigning Hewitt, White, Hansen, or Phillips or looking elsewhere. I expect us to address WLB early in the draft to find Harris’s replacement as he has one year left on his deal and if he looks like he did this year in training camp, he should get cut saving 3.355 MM in 2025 cap. Linebacker isn’t an alarming need as To’oTo’o and Al-Shaair are solid starts, but we might not have an NFL caliber body besides them. Secondary Overall our team coverage ranked 7th. This is due to Stingley, Lassiter, and Pitre having great seasons. Our secondary has very good starters and not much depth. We do have a few players in Pitre, Ward, and Lassiter that can play multiple positions in the secondary if needed due to injuries. Derek Stingley Jr. was ranked as PFFs 29th overall cornerback. He ranked 12th in coverage, 46th in man and 22nd in zone coverage. We typically run almost 2x the amount of zone coverage compared to man. Stingley’s overall grade in man wasn’t very good. However he ranked 7th in completion percentage against at 35.1%, 19th in ADOT and 1st in INTs while in man coverage. In 2024, Stingley established himself as one of the best corners in the league and was able to play in every game this season for the first time in his career. Kamari Lassiter was drafted in the 2nd round and I thought he was going to mainly be used in the slot. He proved his “slow 40 time” was not an issue and put up very similar numbers to Stingley. Lassiter was gradded as PFFs 37th overall corner and 23rd in overall coverage. His overall man grade wasn’t great but he ranked 5th in completion percentage against at 33.3%. Both of Lassiter’s INTs came while in zone coverage. He’s quickly locked down the other outside corner spot and shown the ability to play in the slot if needed. No other corners played enough snaps (200 minimum) to qualify for my filter. Hollman, Ross and Bryant all graded out decently for the snaps they played. None were great but none were liabilities. Jeff Okudah when he was able to play, competed with Kenyon Green for the “how is this guy on a roster” award. Kris Boyd wasn’t good at all when he played corner and was a below average special teamer as well. Both are free agents and Boyd is the only one I could see returning. We don’t have a ton of depth and for 2025 we should be looking to fortify the secondary. We were lucky Stingley stayed healthy all year and Lassiter played in 14 games. We have all our starting positions locked up for 2025. We should look to add quality depth and look for a corner in the mid rounds that can develop. You can never have enough good secondary depth and right now we don’t have much. Boyd, Okudah, Hollman, and Bryant are all UFAs this year. Safety was a big need going into 2024. Adding Calen Bullock in the draft proved to be a great addition; however, at times his inexperience showed, and he gave up big plays. One of his biggest knocks was his tackling. He graded below average at around a 56 but sadly this was one of the better grades on the team. Bullock was a safety who constantly goes for the big play instead of keeping the play in front of him. As he matures, hopefully he can diagnose plays better and reduce the number of negative ones. If he can do this, he’s got the chance to grow into one of the top free safeties. 2025 will be a contract year for Jalen Pitre. He was much improved in 2024 and I think that had a lot to do with the coaching. In 2024 we flipped his snaps at free safety to snaps in slot. In 2023 he played 544 at free safety and 105 in the slot. In 2024 he played 8 at free safety and 434 in the slot. 2024 was his highest overall graded season as he greatly improved his coverage (58.7 to 71.3) and run defense (67.1 to 79.5). Pitre has thrived in this new role but still has the flexibility to play in the box if needed due to injuries. Jimmie Ward was our best graded safety in 2024 but couldn’t stay healthy. He’s never played a full season in his career and has only managed 10 games in each of the last two seasons. He does provide flexibility to play in the box, in the middle of the field, in the slot and on the outside if needed. He’ll be 34 next year and a free agent after. Hopefully he can put together a healthy season or at least be healthy in the playoffs. We’ll need to either retain Murray as his backup or find his potential replacement this offseason.
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