A breakdown of JP France this season

Also since some people in this subreddit dislike analytics or just haven’t kept up with new metrics.

• wOBA = Weighted On Base Average
• xWOBA = Expected Weighted On Base Average (uses expected metrics based on quality of contact)

France at the start of the season while he put up decent numbers was over performing at the time like Bielak. But this is one thing to remember though, a player can be underperforming or overperforming due to luck. BUT that doesn’t mean they can’t turn a corner and start doing legitimately bad or legitimately good.

Players like Bielak who had a great ERA for a time despite horrendous underlying metrics due to luck end up getting exposed as the season goes along.

JP France’s xwOBA is steadily dropping (good thing) as the season has been going along. It’s now at .315 xwOBA which context wise means hitters are between the below average (.310) to average (.320) tier versus him.

First couple of starts inflated the discrepancy big time between his production vs expected performance (basically got very lucky). But now he’s been legitimately settling in. His xFIP is still not too great, but it’s been improving

He is still over performing a bit, but his expected metrics are now that of a #3 or #4 at worst.

France is a 5 pitch pitcher with 4 that are at worst league average and at best among the best pitches in the league

In terms of pitch xwOBA (.320 is considered average meaning hitters are league average):

• Cutter: .324
• Sweeper: .325
• Changeup: .216
• Curveball: .133

The Curveball and Changeup which are his primary Put Away pitches are legitimately among the best pitches in the game.

Now if he’s so dominant in those, why do the metrics say he’s been a bit lucky (even those his overall xWOBA is that of a #3 or #4 pitcher)

Answer: His fastball is the main culprit.

Hitters have an xwOBA of .389 against it, while the actual xWOBA is .344 which is still not that great.

Context wise this mean batters are averaging the contact of the 12th best hitter in the game versus it (think Kyle Tucker). But he’s been getting lucky with it.

This is an issue because he uses his FB 43% of the time, but it hasn’t hurt him as much because of how absurdly dominant his Changeup and Curveball are.

The actual wOBA against the FB is “only” .344 which means hitters are only above average vs it rather than the expected 12th best hitters vs it.

He’s able to minimize damage because of how absurdly good his 2 put away pitches are in his change up and curveball.

Summary:

While I still am not sure what I expect going forward given how poor his fastball is since he could end up being even a #2 pitcher if he improves on it.

I still have a floor of a #4 pitcher which is absolutely fantastic for a guy we never expected much of. I could legitimately see him being far more if he can ever improve upon his fastball in the future.