My Offseason Moves

Salary cap

This is just my overview of the cap situation for the 2021 season. I’m not an expert or anything so some numbers and ideas may be wrong. These are my opinions but feel free to comment on these moves if you agree or disagree. Also my grammar isn’t amazing so bear with me grammar police.

Starting Cap Situation: We are down -10 million to -15.5 million depending on if the cap shrinks. We will look at the worst case scenario, which would be -15.5 million.

Starting cap: -15.5 mil Cap Rollover: ≈+10mil 2021 Cap: -5.5mil

Right off the bat we should be able to rollover around 10 million. We are still in the negative but there are a few cuts and trades that can really open up the cap for free agent signings.

Easy trades for cap space: Randall Cobb: +6.625 mil BMac: +7 mil

You can make an argument that both of these players are over payed and with both of them hurt right now, we have been seeing cheaper options preform fine. For Cobb, we are seeing both Chad Hansen and Keke Coutee fill out nicely as #3 and #4 options with both being able to work out of the slot. I like Cobb but I really think we could roll with these two next season as his replacements. For BMac, Tyrell Adams has played just well enough to warrant a new contract. What’s nice is the contract would be dirt cheap and with a new ilb coach and scheme we could see Adams turn into a serviceable lb. Keep in mind that because he’s cheap, we could easily move on from him if we find a better option later.

2021 Cap: +8.125 mil

Wishful thinking trades: Whitney Mercilus: +7.35 mil Eric Murray): +3.75 mil

This is purely wishful thinking because these two contracts are so bad that no team would realistically want to take it on. In fact, we may have to attach a draft pick to entice teams to take them on. Also, cutting Whitney would result in a loss of -3mil so I would expect him to ride out the 2021 season before getting cut. Murray will only net you $250,000… but at least we get something out of it…

2021 Cap: +8.125 mil

Easy Cuts:

David Johnson: +6.9 mil Darren Fells: +2.3 mil Brandon Dunn: +3.25 mil Eric Murray: +.25 mil (bruh)

David Johnson gets a lot of hate for how he got here but the value he brings can be easily matched with Duke, CJ, Buddy, and Scottie in my opinion. This upcoming draft also has some good mid round prospects. Darren Fells only had value for us last year cause we schemed it like that. Now he’s in a spot where he’s like TE 3/4 while being our most expensive TE. Also, I think Pharaoh Brown has played well enough for a contract as a TE 2/3. I like Dunn but we could easily replace the “space eating NT” role with someone cheaper. Remember when we had a top tier run defense? We did have starters that were 1-2 round players but our backups, including Dunn, were undrafted players that could also fill in when needed. Eric Murray pops up again but in a more realistic scenario.

2021 Cap: +20.825 mil

Offensive Line:

Nick Martin: +6.25 mil Senio Kelemete: +5.5 mil Zach Fulton: +3 mil

GET AN OFFENSIVE LINE COACH!!! This may be the most important coach to get this offseason. If we get a good coach then Tunsil continues to look like a top 5 LT, Howard’s inconsistency issues could be solved and he becomes a top 7 RT, Scharping( I think his issues are mental ) could looks above average at LG. That’s 3/5 of the spots. I genuinely think that before free agency starts we should cut or trade one or two of the above. I would like to get rid of all three but I’m not sure if that’s viable pre-free agency and pre-draft. I personally believe that o-linemen getting paid top 10 at the their position should be a good pass protector AND a good run blocker. Nick Martin is not that so I would trade him as he does have some value. If our offense switches to a zone scheme, then I would move Fulton to center. I believe that Fulton is out of position and out of scheme with the team right now, but in a zone scheme at the center position, he could be serviceable in his contract year. That’s 4/5 spots filled up. If you key in on a cheap free agent guard, draft prospect, or a cheap trade prospect then I would move on from Kelemete too. If I was the gm, I would emphasize this and I’m personally cutting Kelemete.

2021 Cap: +32.575 mil

Optional Cuts/Trades:

JJ Watt: +17.5 mil Brandin Cooks: +12 mil Duke Johnson: +5.150 mil

If Watt doesn’t like the new gm and coach then he may request a trade. I think you honor that if he demands it for everything he’s done for the team and city. Brandin Cooks could be traded for cap that would net us 12 mil, 13 mil and 15 mil the next 3 years. You could also restructure this contract this year. If he takes a pay cut, cool, but if he takes a signing bonus conversion then the cap hit goes up the next two years. I like Duke and think a better coaching staff can make him our store brand version of Alvin Kamara. I wouldn’t trade or cut these three but if we do we would jump up to 67.225 mil! Bradley Roby’s suspension voids his guarantees which is around 8 mil but I don’t know the full numbers so I’m not including him. I would also like to keep him if we stick to man coverage.

2021 Cap: +32.575 mil

Recap:

Recap to see the players that I would cut and trade and their replacements.

WR3 Randall Cobb -> Hansen/Coutee ILB BMac -> Tyrell Adams(resign) Darren Fells -> TE group as a whole David Johnson -> RB group as a whole Brandon Dunn -> cheap rookie/vet (PJ?) Eric Murray -> cheap rookie/vet (Lonnie?) Nick Martin -> Zach Fulton Senio Kelemete -> cheap rookie/vet

Resigning Free Agents:

Adams and PJ Hall can be resigned before free agency starts so the only hole would be at RG and maybe safety as I would move Lonnie back to corner but he could be at safety next year depending on the staff’s opinion. Also, if we stick to man coverage then the staff could have interest in bringing back Conley if his ankle is fine. Adams would be a cheap 1-2 year deal. If he struggles then we can easily move on. Due to injuries and limited amount of success, Conley and Hall could both be brought back on 1 year deals where they make a combined 2-3 mil. This potentially gives us 2-3 starters at the price of rookies. Pharaoh Brown won’t be a starter but a cheap one year deal for a backup who is having enough success right now would be nice. The big name everyone will look at is Will Fuller. I absolutely want him back but he will be expensive. I expect him to be offered around 15 mil despite the injuries and now suspension. I hope he’s cheaper though and would be willing to move on from Cooks to bring him back.

Signing Outside Free Agents:

The secondary class looks great. Patrick Peterson,Richard Sherman and DJ Hayden are veteran options that could be worth looking at while William Jackson III and Michael Davis are younger options that can play the outside. Chances are WJIII will be sought after if the Bengals don’t sign him while Michael Davis has developed into a quality outside corner for the chargers who may be a cheap day 2 option. Mike Hilton and Brian Poole would be a great gets for the slot position. Everything the Steelers have asked Hilton to do, he’s done at a good level. Meanwhile, Poole has played well in man coverage for the Jets on his one year deal. The safety class is loaded with Marcus Maye, Marcus Williams, Justin Simmons, John Johnson, Karl Joseph, and Anthony Harris. Justin Reid is best at FS so I would look at getting a SS or a versatile safety like Karl Joseph or Marcus Maye. Malik Hooker and Keanu Neal have dealt with multiple injuries that will/may drop their price tags which we could jump on if we want to get risky. The d-line and OLB class has some great prospects too for both pass rushers and run stoppers, something we need desperately. I’m curious what our future d-line and olb coaches’ opinions are on our young guys and JJ. If JJ stays and they like the young guys (Jacob Martin, Charles Omenihu specifically but also Ross Blacklock and Jonathan Greenard as developmental prospects) then they could avoid splurging in this area and spend money rebuilding an atrocious secondary. I may be biased but I think Martin and Omenihu have potential to be above average starters but they need guidance. D-line and OLB coaches may be #2 and #3 on the position coach priority list in my opinion. If they wanna dip here there are names to look at like Shaq Barret, Bud Dupree, Leonard Williams, DaQuan Jones, Trey Hendrickson, and maybe even Von Miller(CO). If Tyrell Adams doesn’t interest you at ILB then Lavonte David and Matt Milano will be worth looking at but will cost much more compared to Adams. The next group worth looking at is the guard and center positions. At guard, you have Brandon Scherff and Joe Thuney. Both are great guards and would be vast upgrades at the position for us but would be costly. Lane Taylor has only played three games the last two seasons and Kelechi Osemele tore both his knees this season are very risky but cheap options, as starters or as depth. At center there are more options. Alex Mack, Mike Pouncey, and Joe Looney are old veterans that will be cheap if you do wanna move on from Fulton, bring in competition or keep him at guard. Corey Linsley, David Andrews, Chase Roullier, Ted Karras and Matt Skura are starters who would be worth looking at as well. I wouldn’t look at RB and WR in free agency but the WR group does feature Allen Robinson, Kenny Golliday, Chris Godwin alongside Will Fuller.

What I Would Do:

My first move would be bringing back Will Fuller. I’m really not sure how much he would cost so let’s go off the Franchise Tag which is 16 million. So 32.5 – 16 = 16.5 mil. I would also bring back Conley, Hall and Adams. Conley and Hall could both potentially agree to 1 year – $1 million deal so 2 mil combined. Tyrell Adams gets a 2 year deal where he makes around 4 mil. So now 16.5 – 6 = 10.5 mil. At this point the only thing I would look at is getting a slot corner like Mike Hilton or Brian Poole. Both could be had for around 6-8 mil. The remaining money is for depth and the draft class. This leaves the draft for a guard, center, safety, NT, and all around depth.

Thank you for reading my post and be sure to leave some comments if you agree or disagree with me and add your own opinions if you want.