Yes, the worst of summer is probably over for Houston

In brief: Thursday is still going to feel very hot across Houston, but by this weekend we’ll return to temperatures in the mid-90s with a slight chance of rain. Next week we’re going to see partly cloudy days, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, and widespread showers. And then, all of a sudden, we’re into September.

Past peak summer?

Golly, I sure hate to write that we’re probably done with the worst of summer, because one never wants to tempt Mother Nature. However, we just experienced a stretch of six 100-degree days (we may add one more today, although I wouldn’t bet on that). High temperatures peaked on Tuesday and Wednesday, reaching 102 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. It’s going to be difficult to top that.

We know for sure that Houston highs are on a clear down slope for the rest of this month. Although we certainly can hit 100 degrees in September, at this point the odds are fairly low that we see another sustained stretch of brutally hot weather. I’m not ready to say we’re done with triple digits, but I really do believe we’re past the worst of the summer of 2024 in terms of heat.

Thursday

Today is still going to be really hot, of course. High temperatures will reach the upper 90s today, and some inland locations may hit 100 degrees. But we should be slightly cooler than on Wednesday. There is, perhaps, a 10 percent chance of showers this afternoon. Winds will be light, increasing to 5 to 10 mph from the southeast this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.

Friday

Skies will again be mostly sunny, but for most of Houston highs will likely peak in the mid- to upper-90s. Some scattered showers will also be possible starting in the morning hours, and persisting into the afternoon with daytime heating. Overall rain chances will be about 20 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

Overall skies should be mostly sunny this weekend, but there likely will be a few clouds during the afternoon. Most locations should see highs in the vicinity of the mid-90s. Rain chances will be on the order of 20 to 30 percent daily, mostly driven by the sea breeze. Lows will remain warm, but should start dropping into the upper 70s.

Next week

As high pressure backs off further, we’ll see our region open up to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico next week. This will lead to healthy, daily rain chances on the order of 50 percent. Generally, next week, we can expect high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s, with partly cloudy skies, and periodic passing showers with embedded downpours. The likelihood of rain will be greater near the coast, but everyone should have a chance of seeing some showers. We will likely remain in this pattern through most of next week, and possibly into the weekend.

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics are quiet. In case you missed it, we published a long post from Matt yesterday on why that is, and how long it will last.