Beryl just below hurricane strength as it nears Texas coast tonight

In brief: Beryl’s approach to Texas will lead to a messy Sunday night and Monday morning across the Houston region. The storm’s core of strongest winds will pass directly through the city, but we’ve been fortunate to not see rapid intensification (so far) today. This post highlights the latest forecast and threats to the metro area.

Beryl status as of 10 pm CT

As it nears the Texas coast tonight, Tropical Storm Beryl’s maximum sustained winds are 70 mph, which is just below Category 1 hurricane status (winds greater than 74 mph). The storm is moving to the north-northwest at 10 mph, and is only about 70 miles away from the coast. Its central pressure, 986 mb, is slowly dropping indicating ongoing organization.

Beryl’s intensity and track

During our post this afternoon I extolled the virtues of dry air, and the fact that it was helping to slow the intensification of Beryl. Happily, that trend has continued throughout the evening hours. There is still some time for Beryl to rapidly intensify as we have seen with past hurricanes nearing the Texas shore, but time is running out with a landfall expected six to eight hours from now, between 2 am and 4 am CT on Monday. It is likely that Beryl comes ashore as a Category 1 hurricane, and the window is closing on something stronger than this. All that said, tropical systems are unpredictable, so let’s keep cheering on dry air until landfall early tomorrow.

Beryl’s track toward the coast has remained similar for a day now, with a landfall expected near or just east of Matagorda tonight. The center, traveling more or less due north, will pass near locations such as Katy and The Woodlands on Monday morning before exiting to the north.

How much will Beryl blow?

The magnitude of Beryl’s winds, and subsequent power outages, will be determined by the extent to which Beryl strengthens before landfall. It is clear that virtually no part of the Houston metro area, save for the slim possibility of Lake Jackson, is likely to experience hurricane-force sustained winds. However, much of our region is likely to see tropical storm force sustained winds during a period from the wee hours of Monday morning, starting perhaps between 2 to 4 am, through the late morning hours. Our region will see higher gusts during that period.

I went a bit deep on the possibility of power outages in our post earlier today, and my thinking more or less stands. The less that Beryl intensifies before landfall, the better. My hope is that outages will be manageable and restored within a few days. But that is not something I am comfortable guaranteeing.

Rainfall expectations

I have found myself looking at the radar this evening in equal parts awe and dread. Beryl’s center is clearly visible on Houston’s primary radar, which is located in League City. There are three concentric rings of rainbands, and that mess is headed our way over the next 12 to 16 hours.

One of my daughters told me that the prevailing sentiment on TikTok, apparently, is that because the satellite appearance of Beryl looks a lot like Hurricane Harvey from 2017, the Houston area is going to see similar rainfall amounts. God bless the kids, but they’re wrong about that. There is no comparison in the relative storm motions. Because it stalled out, Harvey’s rains unfolded over a five-day period in Houston. By contrast, we’re going to see the worst of Beryl’s rains move through in about 8 to 12 hours. Accordingly, while the rainfall rates may be similarly intense, Beryl’s storms will end much quicker and overall accumulations will be much less.

As of about 9:30 pm CT, the first of these bands was moving inland into Brazoria County, and this will steadily push into Houston tonight and Monday morning. Based upon radar trends, I would estimate that the strongest bands of rainfall will push through the metro are between 4 am and 10 am CT on Monday. Expect accumulations of 4 to 10 inches for much of the area, with higher isolated totals. Rain chances will diminish (but not go away entirely) during the afternoon and evening hours. Expect flooded streets for a time.

Storm surge

Storm surge flooding, on top of high tides on Monday morning, will probably be a bit higher than what our region experienced during Tropical Storm Alberto in many places near and east of where Beryl comes ashore, especially between Galveston and East Matagorda Bay. These flood waters should quickly recede by Monday afternoon or evening as Beryl lifts northward.

Final thoughts

Wherever you’re reading this, I hope you’ve made it home or to a safe place tonight. While this is unlikely to be a catastrophic storm, it still will be memorable due to the fact that Beryl’s center will pass directly over parts of the southwest, western, and northern Houston metro area, and make for a wild night of winds and rain. If at all possible, please stay put through the morning hours on Monday.

Matt will have a post early on Monday, when Beryl makes landfall, and refreshing the forecast. Then, around 6 am CT on Monday, we’ll have a comprehensive update on the storm and its impacts for our region. That will be followed by regular reports on Monday as we get through the worst of the storm, and onto brighter days ahead.