What Chris Hollins got right, and what he got wrong in his take on the HFD pay dispute

Chris Hollins made waves this week by claiming that the city is about to overpay its firefighters, and posted a chart (linked) comparing various hypothetical pay situations regarding HFD. Some of it is accurate… some of it is misleading.

By 2025, if the city council signs off on the new contract, HFD will be almost up to state average for public firefighters. That's a good place to start, especially when HFD has been hemorrhaging firefighters who have been leaving for better-paying departments.

What about the previous 8 years? HFD has been without a contract for 8 years–so the back pay isn't about "being fair" it's a legal requirement for the city to pay any difference in retroactively settled pay rates. Regardless of the city's financial strains, this is HFD's money that they *should have* been paid over the last 8 years. Being without a contract for so long (thanks, Turner) is what is making this so expensive.

Is Whitmire offering HFD too sweet of a deal, as Hollins implies? The honest answer is maybe, but he also might be saving the city $650 million. The City of Houston is offering a big backpay settlement to avoid the possibility of settling via independent arbitrator (the state-mandated next step if the city council rejects this package). HFD is accepting a deal that very likely is paying them less than they would get from an independent arbitrator, as the arbitrator is legally bound to set the prevailing wage dating back to 2017 according to private sector wages (aka refinery firefighters) which are substantially higher than public sector wages. Whitmire got HFD on his side by championing the "unsettled labor contracts must go to an arbitrator" legislation in Austin, since Turner had HFD cornered by simply not offering a contract at all–Turner literally just said, "nah, I'm not going to pay you or give you a new contract. Ever." Note that this legislation saw massive bipartisan support, passed with flying colors, and is regarded as a huge win for organized labor across the country.

The firefighters are taking less than they'd likely receive from an arbitrator in order to get this deal done now with a good payday and move on. The city is offering a big check up front in order to avoid the possibility of owing one TWICE as big (Hollins' 1.2B comparison). It's a good deal for HFD, and it's a good deal for the CoH.