On our “scale of excitable dogs” tonight is probably a 7 for areas north of Houston

Summary: If you live in central or northern Houston, there is a healthy chance of storms tonight after midnight.

Good afternoon, everyone. Just a brief update to say that, as expected, widespread showers and thunderstorms that developed this morning are now winding down. The heaviest rains did, indeed, fall closer to the coast with some locations near Alvin and Santa Fe picking up about 5 inches of rain. These areas are now probably done for today and tonight.

Instead the focus shifts up north, where a line of storms is expected to propagate from west to east, generally along and north of Interstate 10. In terms of timing, this line will probably reach the Bryan-College Station area around midnight or shortly before, push through Montgomery County an hour or two later, and reach Beaumont-Port Arthur by around 3 am give or take.

For the most part these probably will be thunderstorms—hence the invocation of our excitable dogs scale. On a scale of 1 to 10, we’re probably looking at about a 7 tonight in terms of dogs barking and carrying on. There is a risk for some more severe weather, in terms of hail and possibly damaging winds, but the overall atmosphere is not ideal for this to occur in the Houston metro area. For those who live east of Houston, particularly the Beaumont-Port Arthur area, I do think there is a higher chance of severe thunderstorms with this system’s passage.

Our weather quiets down on Friday morning with a weak front and some drier air. Matt will have full details for you in the morning.