2024 Houston Astros Starters: SS Jeremy Pena

Good morning, y'all. Welcome to part 5 of the series, with Yainer Diaz,Jose Abreu, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman under our belts already. We round up the infield today with SS Jeremy Pena. For some, last year was a Sophomore slump for Pena. For others, it wasn't that different from his rookie year. So is either side right or is the truth somewhere in the middle? Let's find out and dive right into the numbers.

DISCLAIMER: this isn't meant to be a deep-dive but more a snorkeling-dive, to get the conversation going on how we feel about the position/player and what we expect out of them. Please feel free to comment on formatting, stats presented, etc.

2023 Stats

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Stat	Value	Ranking Among SS*
Games Played	150	8-tied
Plate Appearances	634	8
AVG	.263	13-tied
HR	10	24
RBI	52	20
R	81	9-tied
OBP	.324	13-tied
SLG	.381	23
OPS	.705	21-tied
OPS+	95	21-tied
wRC+	96	17-tied
K%	20.3	18
BB%	6.8	16-tied
BABIP	.323	8-tied
fWAR	2.8	13
bWAR	3.8	NA

*Rankings based on SS w/ at least 400 PA (33 total) in 2023. Rankings may be off by a spot or 2 due to players being considered SS even though they primarily played a different position last year but you get the picture.

Baseball Savant Page

Interesting Stat: Pena had 2 spots in the lineup (2nd and 7th) in 2022 where he batted in at least 20 games. In 2023, that number was 4 (2nd, 6th, 7th, and 8th). A lot of this was due to injuries but maybe this made it a bit more difficult for him to get into a rhythm? Just a thought. Also, Pena performed best the first time facing a pitcher, both SP and RP.

Surprising Stat: It's not so much surprising to find that Pena did poorly in high leverage spots but how poorly he did. I'm talking a .507 OPS in high-lvrge spots, followed closely by a .522 OPS in medium-lvrge. In contrast, Pena's highest OPS came batting with 2 outs. Gotta love baseball.

What To Look Forward To

Pena's plate discipline has improved. His K% dropped from 24.2 in 2022 to 20.4 in 2023 while his BB% increased from 3.9 to 6.8. And yes, his overall offensive numbers took a dip but not by as much as some make it seem. I'm talking a drop in OPS+ from 102 to 95. Consistency is what Pena lacked last year and I think he'll be able to find that more batting in the 7 and 8 spots instead of bouncing around all over the place. In addition, Pena has made adjustments to his swing to regain that drop in power he experienced, especially in the back half of the season. It's always good to see a player recognize what they need to work on.

In a similar vein, just using the eye test, we saw that Pena's defense wasn't as good as in 2022. However, that doesn't mean it was bad. Oh far from it. His OAA went from 7 (92nd-percentile) to 2 (79th-percentile) from 2022 to 2023. So we're talking a drop from "elite defense" to "very good/great defense". And even if you are worried about all these slight drops in his game just remember this: he's a 26-year old SS with amazing defense and a decent bat. At worst, this is his floor.

What To Be Concerned About

Hitting 0 HRs in the 2nd half of the season would make anyone rework their swing. Goes to show you can have absolute cannons for arms but that does you no good if you can't make contact. And what happened to cold-blooded Pena? To go from a WPA (Win Probability Added) of 1.2 to -3.3 is a hell of a fall. Was he putting too much pressure on himself b/c of his 2022 postseason performance? Or were Altuve and Yordan providing that much protection for him where when one, or both, were injured he was exposed? At least there will be less pressure on him hitting in the back-half of the order and he can focus on his adjustments.

My Conclusion/Prediction

Was 2023 really a Sophomore slump for Pena? If I had to answer yes or no I'd say yes HOWEVER let's put it into this perspective: Pena finished 5th in ROY voting in a stacked class, won a Gold Glove, and was arguably his team's playoff MVP in their run to a World Series championship . . . that's quite the bar to clear! I think a lot of fans expected playoff Pena for the whole season and when they didn't get that, they lost their minds. I remember people calling for Pena to be benched for Kessinger, for like a week but still, and while that was a vocal minority, it just shows the sky-high expectations some had for him.

I am very hopeful for Pena. I think his OBP and AVG will stay the same but he'll double his HR total to 20. I'd say a slash line of around .260/.315/.425. Combine that with great defense and we're looking at a borderline top-10 SS.

But what do ya'll think of Pena? Will he outperform these modest expectations? Over/Under 20 HRs? Gold Glove worthy defense? Thanks for reading and I'll see you in the next post.

Next player: DH/LF Yordan Alvarez