Cloudy tonight for the Geminid meteor shower, Friday night rainfall comes into better focus

Good morning. The Geminid meteor shower—typically one of the best of the year—peaks tonight into Thursday morning. Unfortunately, we’re going to be mostly clouded in in the greater Houston area. The nearest chance for clear skies liest to the west of areas such as Sealy, or northwest of College Station tonight, and even that appears to be far from a sure thing. There is the possibility for some clearer skies on Thursday evening, although the meteor shower will be less prominent by then. Sorry, stargazers.

Wednesday

We’re seeing some light showers to the southwest of the region this morning, in the Port Lavaca and Victoria area. Some of these rains may work their way into the Houston metro area later this morning for areas to the west of Interstate 45. Any accumulations should be slight. Otherwise it will be, as mentioned above, a mostly cloudy day and night. Highs will reach the mid-60s, with overnight temperatures dropping to around 50 degrees in Houston. Winds will be about 10 mph, out of the east.

Thursday

We’ll probably see a little more sunshine on Thursday, and that should nudge highs into the mid- to upper-60s across the metro area. Winds will also be more prominent out of the east, gusting up to 20 mph, and increasing atmospheric moisture levels ahead of increasing rain chances on Friday. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the mid-50s.

Friday

Friday will start out cloudy, and I think rain chances are going to hold off until at least noon. However, after that time a broad upper-level storm system will move in, and we’ll see showers and thunderstorms marching into the metro area from the west. This activity will likely peak from late afternoon through early Saturday morning, with showers and some heavier downpours. I don’t think we’re looking at anything too extreme, but most of the area should pick up 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall. Highs on Friday will top out in the mid-60s.

Saturday

Lows on Saturday morning will drop into the 50s, and we could see some additional light showers lingering into the late morning hours. Mostly cloudy skies should limit highs in the upper 50s, and winds will be prominent out of the north at 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. So although the rains should be ending by Saturday afternoon, it’s still going to be breezy and cool. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 40s with mostly cloudy skies.

Sunday

We should see clearing skies on Sunday, with highs of around 60 degrees. A persistent northerly breeze will remain, with gusts continuing at 15 to 20 mph. Lows on Sunday night will again drop into the 40s as winds finally start to slacken some.

Next week and Christmas outlook

The first half of next week should see continued chilly weather, with highs in the 60s and nights generally in the 40s. By Wednesday we should start to warm some, with highs approaching 70 degrees toward next weekend. I’d say the forecast for Christmas Eve the Christmas Day remains rather unsettled. We could see some kind of a front coming through the area next weekend (Christmas is on a Monday) and that may bring some precipitation and colder air for the holiday. Or not. There’s just not enough consistency in the forecast models, or overall pattern, to have any confidence. For now my guess would be highs in the 60s on Christmas Day with at least a decent chance of rain. But there’s a long way to go.