Steelers @ Texans Preview from a fan

Sorry y’all I did one of these week 1 and really enjoyed it I forgot to say I would be in Europe for a couple weeks this month so wasn’t able to do weeks 2 and 3. But I’m back let’s go!

Texans Notable Injuries

Not here to complain we all know this is a helluva list. Texans are down 1st and 2nd string LT. 1st string LG, 1st string Center, and 1st string RT (too many names to list). Starting Nickel corner Tavierre Thomas and starting CB1 Derek Stingley. Starting LB Denzel Perryman and rotational DT Hassan Ridgeway.

Steelers Notable Injuries

I very well could be missing some but these are the major Steelers injuries I know about. Steelers are down their starting Guard, their punter, and starting DT Cameron Heyward and WR2 Diontae Johnson.

Texans Offense vs Steelers Defense

Looking at the pass game the big challenge will be to contain the two Pittsburgh edge rushers. We know the Texans are incredibly banged up on the oline and we know how good the Steelers edge rushers are. Bobby Slowik isn’t an idiot he knows they will struggle too the big question of the game is how he deals with it. In the passing game I’d expect to see a lot of quick game throws with a few max protect deep shots to Dell or Collins. Speaking of WR corps I’ve really enjoyed the Texans WR’s so far. Nico Collins has been eating in the middle of the field and Dell has been the guy outside the hashes and Robert Woods is the dude on 3rd down he’s really just always open when you need him. The Pittsburgh secondary is nothing special outside of Minkah and I think if the oline can hold up at all we should have success through the air.

Continuing with the pass game we have to talk about Stroud obviously. He’s been off to a great start but I do expect a bit of a come back down to earth this week but honestly he’s exceeded all my expectations up to this point so who knows. I just don’t think the oline will be able to do what needs to be done so I’m expecting a very week 1 like performance from Stroud. Not awful not great, he just really needs to protect the ball at all costs this game.

As for the run game not sure there’s much to be said, the guys up front just frankly need to block better, last week was a little better but still not good. There’s just not enough room to run so far. I will say the interior of Pitt’s dline is much weaker than the edges so I’m hopeful we can exploit that. The issue there is Pitt’s inside linebackers aren’t superstars or anything like the Ravens but they are solid and will cause some issues in the run game.

Final thoughts here, I don’t think we have the juice to get the run game going so again any offense will probably come through the air against the weaker part of the Steelers defense, I think to have any success on offense tomorrow we need one of these backup tackles to have the game of their life and we need Stroud to be crisp and be prepared to get the ball out quickly. It can’t be like week 1 and 2 where he was occasionally just holding on a little too long. If it’s not there throw it away don’t try and be a hero this week.

Texans Defense vs Steelers Offense

I believe this is a more favorable matchup. To start off the Steelers OC is terrible so that’s a nice advantage to have. Going to the pass game I don’t have much faith in the Steelers skill positions or oline honestly. Pickens is a great WR but they don’t have much juice outside of him in the WR room with Diontae Johnson out, Allen Robinson is cooked at this point in his career and Calvin Austin has been pretty invisible outside of one big catch thus far. Friermuth their TE is a good player and not to be ignored but for whatever reason he’s been invisible so far this year. Their 3rd down back Jaylen Warren may actually be their second best receiving threat. From what I’ve seen he’s strong in the screen game an area we’ve struggled so keep an eye there. Kenny Pickett is also just not a QB who worries me. He is a strange guy to watch however. It seems like he’s better once the play breaks down and struggles to play in structure, he also seems to bail from clean pockets a lot. He’s a fine QB but given their system, his weapons, and the oline I think we’ll be able to limit him.

As for the guys trying to stop that passing game. Our DB room has lost our Nickel CB and CB1 in Tavierre Thomas and Derek Stingley but has gotten safeties Pitre and Ward back which I believe will be huge for this group. This group minus Pitre did a solid job against the Jags who have a better group of weapons and better QB then the Steelers. The defense also looked noticeably worse in week 1 when Pitre was in vs post injury. I think his presence lets Ryans do a lot more of the stuff that he wants with this defense and it’ll show Sunday. Nelson is also having a great year so far as the new CB1 until Stingley returns.

Looking at our dline vs their oline I think we have the advantage here. Our pass rush was nonexistent week 2 but week 1 and 3 they were very good. No sacks last week but 19 pressures generated, that is largely due to Trevor Lawrence having a 2.42 seconds time to throw this year (good for 6th in the league) vs Pickett at 2.84 seconds (22nd). We have a solid mix of edge guys and interior guys (especially Maliek Collins) who can generate pressure and I think we’ll be able to get after Pickett this week.

I’m less confident against the run however. Our linebackers will be missing Perryman again and outside of Cashman the linebackers frankly don’t look very good. Our interior dline is also better against the pass than the run. I don’t think this Steelers offense is good enough to gash us in the run game or anything but I think they’ll have more success than they’ve shown so far.

How the Texans win

On offense the Texans win by figuring out the run game a bit, Stroud being efficient and getting the ball out quickly to negate the rush, and first and foremost taking care of the ball. Can’t turn the ball over as I believe this game needs to be won with defense and this defense isn’t good enough to withstand too many short fields.

On defense the Texans win by getting pressure on Pickett and keeping him in the pocket. Force him to do what he’s not good at. And then gotta figure out how to stop the run the offense will need as many shots as possible at scoring this game cannot let the Steelers dominate time of possession.

How the Steelers win

On offense the Steelers win by being able to hold the Texans dline at bay in the run game and exploit the weakness of the Texans LB corps. In the passing game I believe their best shot is to try and exploit the middle of the field with Friermuth Robinson and Warren vs our linebackers/backup slot corner.

On defense there’s just one thing the Steelers need to do to win. Dominate a largely backup Texans oline with Watt and Highsmith. If they can confuse Stroud enough early in the snap and get him to hold the ball even a bit the Steelers should have a lot of defensive success.

My personal prediction

I believe the Steelers offense will struggle to throw and have mild success on the ground. They won’t put together many full field scoring drives. However the Steelers defensive line should be able to take over this game on the other side and will likely force a turnover or two. I see a low scoring 20-13 type of Steelers victory. Hopefully I’m wrong!