Fan Preview of Texans @ Ravens

So for fun this year I’ll be trying to do a preview each week. I’m just an average fan, not an expert/analyst so don’t take this as the word of god or anything but I thought it would be a fun way to learn a bit and spark some discussion. This one got out of hand in length a bit but in the future will be focusing on a little more brevity.

Notable Injuries Ravens

Mark Andrews and OBJ were both listed on the injury report but are likely to play on Sunday at this point. Star CB Marlon Humphrey will not play.

Notable Injuries Texans

The Texans will unfortunately be down 3/5 of their projected starting oline this week with LG Kenyon Green, C Juice Scruggs, and RT Tytus Howard all out for the week. The Texans will also be without starting Safety Jimmie Ward.

Matchup: Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense

To start these units both have new leadership from last year so it’s tough to say exactly what these units will look like in 2023 so I’ll mostly focus on personnel. Starting with the Ravens offensive line, they return 4 quality starters from last year while starting new left guard John Simpson. Simpson looks to be the weak link of the line, he was benched in Vegas last year after a terrible 2021 season and the Ravens are giving him a second chance. On the other side the Texans front 7 looks to be much improved on paper. They return DE Greenard who was injured last year after a very productive rookie season and add a few notable additions including DE Will Anderson, LB Denzel Perryman, and DT Sheldon Rankins. The big questions for this Texans front 7 in the run game are first, can the linebackers be better under Ryans and what kind of impact can rookie Will Anderson have. If Christian Harris can take a sophomore jump, if Denzel Perryman can maintain his form from last year, and if Will Anderson is as advertised I can see the Texans containing the Ravens run game (not really stopping it all together as that oline is just too good and Lamar is electric. Also Texans Safety Jalen Pitre is a needle mover in the run game and is usually good for at least a couple great plays a game against the run.

In the pass game is another interesting battle. The Texans secondary on paper is great. Steven Nelson had a great year last year and Derek Stingley has all the talent in the world. Jalen Pitre is coming off of a great rookie year and had a great camp. Texans Nickel corner Tavierre Thomas is also an underrated player and clearly someone the Texans trust to handle the role this year. The weakness here with starting safety Jimmie Ward out may be backup Eric Murray. He’s fine for a backup but certainly a downgrade from Ward. On the other side the Ravens two most known quantities are Jackson and TE Mark Andrews. They do however have a talented WR group. OBJ is an unknown quantity at this point in his career but the juice is certainly there as we’ve seen in the past. Rashod Bateman is the Nico Collins of the Ravens, talented player who hasn’t managed to put it all together yet or stay healthy he’s a potential threat. Maybe the biggest Ravens wildcard is rookie Zay Flowers who is very talented and has had a good preseason. I think the Ravens WR corps is very similar to the Texans in that there’s a lot of talent but the players are mostly unknown quantities. In terms of how this matchup goes overall I think the Texans will struggle to generate pressure quickly without blitzing and will lean heavily on their talented secondary to hold up in the meantime. My guess is Ryans will focus on trying to close down the middle of the field to Lamar and force him to throw outside the numbers where he typically is less effective but it’s week 1 so we shall see.

Matchup: Ravens Defense vs Texans Offense

This will be tough sledding for the Texans offense. Being down 3/5 of the oline could be a tough blow. It’s unclear how much of a downgrade there is from starter to backup at LG and Center but RT is definitely a downgrade. The saving grace for Stroud may be that the Ravens pass rush situation is very uncertain at this point in time as they will mostly be relying on unproven players to generate pressure. The only player on their dline with more than 6 sacks in a season is Clowney who at this point in his career is mostly a run stopping specialist with only 2 sacks all of last year. It will be up to the Ravens young players to show their stuff against a very banged up Houston oline. The Ravens biggest front 7 advantages come from the strength of their linebackers (Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith two great players) and DT’s (Justin Madibueke is one of my candidates to breakout this year) vs the interior of the Texans oline, specifically Center and LG. In terms of skill positions Dameon Pierce is coming off a great rookie year we’ll see if he can pick up where he left off. To catch passes the Texans have Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods, and Tank Dell. The Ravens cornerback room without Humphrey is probably the weakest part of this defense however they have two good safeties (Hamilton and Marcus Williams) to help out. I think the Texans wide receivers have a chance to have a big day if Dell is what we saw in the preseason and if Nico Collins is the player I believe he is. The big question mark of course is Stroud here, if we get preseason week 2/3 of Stroud and the oline can hold up against the pass rush then we have a chance. If not then it will be a long day.

How the Texans win

It’s counter intuitive with a rookie QB in his first start but I think on offense the Texans win by airing it out. I don’t think the run game will work very well this week and the Ravens secondary/pass rush is clearly the weaker link on this defense as I see it. I think the clearest path to success on offense is Stroud looking composed and decisive like he did in week 2 and 3 and try and air it out against a weakened secondary. On defense I think the blueprint will have to be stop the run first and foremost. Try and close down the middle of the field in the passing game and force Lamar to throw it to his more unproven weapons in an area of the field where he’s not as efficient.

How the Ravens win

Ravens easiest path to victory is the boring one IMO. On offense control the ball and use that top 10 oline to run the ball right at the Texans and take advantage of the fact that the Texans lack a guy who can take over the game in the front 7 (unless Anderson hits the ground running. Make heavy use of Andrews against Texans linebackers that have historically struggled in coverage and you’ve got a fairly comfortable victory. On defense the goal is to make Stroud look like a rookie in his first start. With the Texans starting an oline that hasn’t really played together, a rookie center, and rookie QB I could see the Ravens using the blitzing ability of their linebackers to confuse and pressure Stroud and ultimately force him into mistakes.

Final Thoughts and Predictions

The optimist in me says the oline can hold up against an unproven Ravens pass rush, that Stroud will look competent out there in his first start, and that our defense can hold a rusty Lamar Jackson in check. The realist in me says a few of those things don’t happen. I’m guessing the Texans see some miscommunications and struggles on the oline with 60% of the starting group already out and Stroud will have a few rough moments against a solid Ravens defense. On offense even if Lamar Jackson is a bit rusty as long as his weapons show up to play I don’t see the Texans being able to smother the offense like you might hope. Guessing the score ends up around 27-14 with the Ravens taking the W.

That's it for this one!

Thanks for reading I’m going to try and do this just about every week. In the future will work on brevity as it got a little too long for my liking. Will probably do away with most of the specific personnel talk and focus just on position group matchups. Let me know if you have any other feedback as well!