Astros Trade Deadline Write Up:

The Bat S**t Crazy never going to happen:

Bobby Witt Jr: I only mention this because some article the other day made a comment about it. If BWJ is available we should undoubtedly be trying to trade for him. That said: I doubt he is. He is 23rd in xSLG, 37th in xwOBA, and in the 99th percentile for OAA. If the royals are insane enough to trade him we should be all over it.

Brendan Donovan: This is his second year in the MLB with plenty of control (2028). His price would be near impossible to reach. The upside for him: .850 OPS vs RHP. He is 26 making him older but I doubt of all the names the cardinals will consider moving he would be one. Would add a lefty bat to the lineup

Luis Robert: .848 OPS vs Right handed batters. 1.042 OPS vs lefties. He is having an incredible year but is under control for a while as well as being extremely costly to make the upgrade from mccormick to robert. Especially with Gilbert in the pipeline. I should add that lu bob is one of my favorite players in the mlb but not for us.

Patrick Sandoval: When LAA trades ohtani (and I do believe it is when not if) will they consider tearing it all down? If so Sandoval may be a sneaky name to get moved. Was part of the Astros system until he got traded for Maldy. Control until 2027. I don't really think that LAA will commit to tearing it all down so as the title of this section says: this is never going to happen.

The High Cost players:

Dylan Cease: Has 3.40 FIP vs Right handed batters. He has a 3.76 FIP and a 4.18 ERA. 105 ERA+. Last year his slider was a +36 RV (run value) last season making it far and away the best pitch in baseball. This season his slider is still a +10 in run value, but the major change is his fastball. Last season his fastball was a +5RV it has now become a -6RV. His fastball is 1.3MPH slower. I definitely think he is fixable though. He still spins the baseball really well so I think our Miller and the rest of our pitching squad could fix him.

Trent Grisham: Struggles in the BA department but is able to make good contact when he does get control of the baseball. Also does well to draw plenty of walks. 88th percentile in OAA.73rd percentile in avg exit velo. Not really sure what the point of making this move would be unless we send chas out in another deal. Was floated about in the offseason as a trade candidate.

Ha-Seong Kim- SD has considered moving kim before so if they do decide to do a mini tear down, I wouldn't be shocked if he is a player that is moved. Kim ranks in the 100th percentile for OAA as a second baseman. Last year he ranked in the 94th percentile of OAA when he played most of games at SS due to the tatis suspension. He is in the 93rd percentile of chase rate, the 80th percentile of whiff rate and the 40th percentile of xwOBA. He has a .896OPS vs LHP and .263AVG/.351OPS/.414SLG on the season. His walking helps him out tremendously but his numbers suggest the possibility of regression. He won't be a FA until 2027 one year before Pena. His xBA last season was in the 55th percentile before dropping to the 22nd percentile this season.

JD Davis – A season and a half remaining before he hits FA, this would likely require us to deal with major leaguers since SF is still in their push for the playoffs. He has a .786 OPS and was great at the plate early in the season before cooling off a little. He offers a strong right handed bat to add to the lineup if it is decided we need help.

Adds that I think are possible but won't happen

Alex Verdugo: .793 OPS on the season with 2 and a half more seasons under contract.93rd percentile of xBA and k%. A strong player to add to our team but one that I think we would likely be out bid for if he is truly on the market. He has a .857 OPS vs RHP and would be a punchy addition to our outfield and batting order.

Nolan Arenado: In the case that the team actually considered moving on from pena, the astros could shuffle around pieces and put Bregs at SS and Arenado at third. It's too much movement so I doubt it would ever happen or ever should happen mid season but rumors have been flying around Arenado's possible departure from the Cards. His contract would heavily bring down his price putting him possibly into our prospect range. He had an slow start but has picked it up to the tune of a .856OPS. If he gets moved we might be a possibility.

Tim Anderson – TA7 has had a god awful season but his past week has been promising. His xBA suggests he could be a little better and he has a team option at the end of the season meaning he could just be a rental for us. His contract is a lot of money for how he is preforming so it is likely that his price tag would be super low.

Under the Radar Players

Keston Hiura – Got DFA'd at the beginning of the season and has had some injury problems. That said in his current form Hiura had a .866 OPS vs RHP last season. Beyond that the people I know that are brewers fans blame the brewers for ruining his swing and encouraging to trade contact for power. As long as bligh madris is taking up a place on our 26man and 40 man, I say why not hiura. He has almost no value considering he got DFA'd and no one claimed him. At least he offers a great platoon option at best we could fix his swing as part of a long term project.

Nick Madrigal: Dubon's OPS has fallen to .672, Hensley has been atrocious this year. All of that said madrigal is sitting at exactly .700OPS with less flexibility but still options to the minor leagues remaining (I am fairly certain of this) He offers a former top pick to take a chance on if Altuve is going to be out for a while and hensley is going to stick around the team. If Altuve is coming back soon this may not be worth it because the less positional flexibility he offers means Dubon is still more valuable, especially if we consider trading pena.

Jeimer Candelario – Leading that awful nationals team in WAR. Candelario has played a pretty good third with the capability to also play at first. Statcast suggests he is overpreforming at the moment but he would be a rental that could also replace madris with a competent batter.

I'll be honest the batter category sort of confused me this year so I have focused most of my time on the reliever market instead.

Michael Lorenzen: 3.49 ERA but a 4.03 FIP suggests regression. His statcast page isn't inspiring either. That said his FB is a +11 RV, his slider is +7 RV making them his two only positive pitches, but really effective ones at that. Lorenzen is a fine pitcher but in my opinion not worth the prospects that will be used to get him. In a weaker starter market, I expect for his price to be driven up by teams looking for that second tier of starters.

Paul Blackburn: Rocking a 5.48 ERA but blackburn has a 3.71 FIP. Currently a starter for the A's, He could also transition to being an impact long reliever in our bullpen. He has a five pitch mix led by his fastball that sits at only 92 mph. He ranks 88th percentile in chase percentage, 59th percentile in walks, 95th percentile in limiting hard hit percentage, 78th percentile in avg exit velo, and 80th percentile in barrel percentage, His curveball is a +4 in run value being his only positive pitch but a sinker that ranks at average. His active spin sits at FB: 90.2% .398 xWOBA against this pitch, SI: 86.7% .309 xWOBA against this pitch, FC:47.1% .352 xWOBA against this pitch, CH: 77.5% .349 xWOBA against this pitch, SL: 69.4% .290 xWOBA against this pitch, CU: 88.4% – .158 xWOBA against this pitch. Meaning he does a pretty good job of using his spin rates effectively to create movement something the astros have really liked in the past. NOTE: I type this before he pitches for us tonight.

Tejay Antone is a flame thrower from Texas. Amazing at spinning the baseball and has no problem hitting 100mph. I don't know if the reds would even trade him but he had TJ last offseason and has just started to pitch in the minors on rehab. Could be a good buy low candidate if the reds were willing to sell him.

Jack Flaherty is a former first rounder who will be a rental for the rest of the year. A 4.29 ERA and 4.06 FIP doesn't exactly inspire confidence either but the pedigree of the past could make him a player worth moving for at the deadline. His good seasons are a bit behind him and recently injuries and mediocrity has more defined his game. For a team already struggling with injury issues, does it make sense to add a pitcher who hasn't reached 100 IP since 2019.

Jordan Montgomary has a sinker that is a +10 in RV and is rocking a 3.14 ERA with a 3.48 FIP. The southpaw's statcast page again isn't particularly inspiring but for a team desperate for starting pitching it is hard to start getting picky.

Lucas Giolito – Again not a great statcast page. Has a 3.96ERA but his FIP is at 4.56 suggesting at least a little luck all in all. Add in some personal life stressors that may not have his mind on the field at all times and Gio is a player that the front office needs to be sure about before adding. Will always earn extra points in my book for coming to our defense in the scandal.

Keynan middleton – Great Savant page, great Changeup, He will be a free agent at the end of the season but his 2.91 ERA would offer an impact bullpen piece now even if his 3.93 FIP suggests some regression.

Scott Barlow has a year and a half of control left at the moment. He has a 4.89ERA as the royals closer but a 3.45 FIP suggests that barlow could be better if he was taken out of KC. He has a +7RV slider which is a great pitch for barlow. He struggles with walks and neither of his other to pitches offer positive value which is concerning but he generates lots of chases and is strong at limiting hard contact as well.

Finally my favorite player

Chris Stratton – He would only be a rental from the cardinals making him even cheaper but there is a lot to work with a 4.09ERA his 2.71 FIP suggests room for improvement. The reason I love stratton though is that he spins the cover off the ball in the 100th percentile of curveball spin. Middling in a lot of his statcast categories a deeper dive is necessary to see Straton's worth. At it's best his curveball can look like this but consistency is key in that department. Last year this pitch was a +6 in RV this year it is a -3. His fastball is much improved this year and a strong slider to back it up. The biggest fear I would have with Stratton is that we wouldn't have enough time to completely fix him up but his FIP suggests that the player he already is may be good enough for this team anyway.