Breakdown of Astros Draft Signings: 2nd Rounder Tredwell Last Big Piece Unsigned

Currently, 17 of the Astros 20 draft selections have either signed, or intend to sign. The three holdouts are 19th round pick Andrew Duncan (HS, OF), 18th round pick Derek True (College JR, P), and 2nd round pick Alonzo Tredwell (College SO, P).

The Astros had a bonus pool of $6,747,900. Each of the picks in the first 10 rounds has a slot value which adds up to the total bonus pool. If a pick goes unsigned in the first 10 rounds, the slot value associated with that pick is subtracted from the bonus pool. Any signings at or under $150,000 in rounds 11-20 do not count against the bonus pool. Any amount spent over $150,000 in these rounds counts against the bonus pool. So a $200,000 signing in the 12th round would count $50,000 against the bonus pool.

The structure of the bonus rules can allow for some creative drafting. For example last year, the Astros drafted college seniors Drew Gilbert and Jacob Melton with their first two picks. Because college seniors don't have as many options on returning to school and waiting, they tend to not have as much leverage and often sign underslot. In total the Astros signed 8 of their first 10 picks to underslot deals with the remaining 2 at slot. This left them with significant savings to draft and sign top 100 draft prospect, high schooler Ryan Clifford, away from his Vanderbilt commitment after drafting him in the 11th round. This signing was over $1M.

Something similar may have been at play this year, with the Astros taking prep outfielders Nehomar Ochoa Jr. and Anthony Huezo in the 11th and 12th rounds this year.

So here's how things have panned out so far:

Round	Name	Signed?	Slot Value	Actual Bonus	Difference
1	Brice Matthews	Yes	$2,880,700	$2,478,200	$402,500
2	Alonzo Tredwell	No	$1,304,900	N/A	N/A
3	Jake Bloss	Yes	$678,500	$397,500	$281,000
4	Cam Fisher	Yes	$497,600	$500,000	-$2,400
5	Chase Jaworsky	Yes	$360,800	$850,000	-$489,000
6	Ethan Pecko	Yes	$280,700	Unknown	Unknown
7	Joey Dixon	Yes	$221,300	$218,800	$2,500
8	Ryan Johnson	Yes	$186,500	Unknown	Unknown
9	Jeron Williams	Yes	$172,500	$147,500	$25,000
10	Austin Deming	Yes	$164,400	Unknown	Unknown
11	Nehomar Ochoa Jr.	Yes	$150,000	Unknown	Unknown
12	Anthony Huezo	Yes	$150,000	$400,000	-$250,000
13	James Hicks	Yes	$150,000	$150,000	–
14	Jackson Nezuh	Yes	$150,000	$150,000	–
15	Garret Guillemette	Intends to sign	$150,000	Unknown	Unknown
16	Will Bush	Intends to sign	$150,000	Unknown	Unknown
17	Colby Langford	Yes	$150,000	Unknown	Unknown
18	Derek True	No	$150,000	N/A	N/A
19	Andrew Duncan	No	$150,000	N/A	N/A
20	Pascanel Ferreras	Intends to sign	$150,000	Unknown	Unknown

So that's what we know now. Big savings with Matthews and Bloss canceling out big spendings on Jaworsky and Huezo. The Astros are currently at $30,600 *over* slot on the signings we know the numbers on.

Andrew Duncan has a strong commitment to Florida State. He was likely drafted as insurance. Someone to throw money at if guys like Ochoa and Huezo didn't sign. Otherwise that money would be wasted. But with those guys signed, Duncan is almost assuredly not going to be signed.

Derek True, the 18th round pick, may elect not to sign. He announced a transfer from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo to Georgia. Georgia has announced former LSU pitching coach Wes Johnson as head coach. I think it's more likely than not that the junior declines to sign and see if a year pitching in the SEC with good coaching bolsters his draft stock.

One of the big unknown bonuses is Ochoa's. He will most definitely be overslot, and could be in the $400,000-$600,000 range. This will eat into the Astros bonus pool.

The Astros may be able to save a smidge signing college guys Pecko, Johnson, and Deming. Maybe $50k or so.

One last thing on the bonus pool. Teams can exceed their bonus pool by up to 5%. If they do they must pay a 75% overage on the amount they exceed by. This happens quite often. They can also exceed by more than 5%, but that starts costing first and second round picks. No one does this, for obvious reasons.

So essentially the Astros can exceed their $6,747,900 pool allotment by $337,395, and the only penalty would be paying an additional $253,046.

Tredwell is the elephant in the room. Tredwell has been seen as a 1st round type of talent, but was hampered by injuries. As only a sophomore, he has plenty of options left. He could plausibly try to return to school, put in a healthy season and up his draft stock.

If we assume $500k for Ochoa and some $50k in savings from the other guys, plus the ~$30k they are already in the hole, that would put them at ~$330k over the bonus allotment. In other words we'd have about slot value to sign Tredwell if they go up to the maximum 5% overspend. With his talent and years remaining in college, I doubt Tredwell signs underslot.

This is theoretical though. It's possible the Astros will sign these guys for a little less, and will have a little more to throw at Tredwell.

If Tredwell does not sign, the Astros would not retain that bonus pool money to spend elsewhere in this class, but would get an extra pick at the same slot plus one next year (62nd overall).

Overall, I still think Tredwell likely signs, but if they don't have enough to get him at slot even with the 5% overage, it's gonna be tough to see how he signs.

Unlike last year when the Astros went almost entirely underslot to save up for one big prep swing (Clifford), they've spread their savings around to go overslot on three prep guys (Jaworsky, Ochoa and Huezo).

Numbers as of now:

Bonus Pool – $6,747,900

Bonus Pool with 5% Overage – $7,085,295

Total of known signings – $5,292,000*

Current difference of slot to signings – $30,600 under slot

*For picks 11-20, includes only the amount over $150k