My Astros Offseason

First things first I’m aware some of y’all will likely hate what I am going to propose, some of you may think it’s not the worst plan in the world, but im certain no one will like it or likely care. So my disclaimer is as follows: i'll be the first to say my trades are poor in terms of what the astros are trading away. Also – I’M LIKELY THE BIGGEST IDIOT IN THIS SUB AND THERE IS A REASON I’M NOT THE ASTROS GM.

To address the GM vacancy: I suspect that we will hire sig this offseason to run operations and then hire David stearns as president of the org next offseason when he is no longer in Milwaukee. This allows us to bring in clicks guys who will probably think with the conviction that Crane felt click lacked.

SP1-4: Not much needs to be said about this, all of these players have earned there spot in the rotation.

SP5: I believe that Verlander was searching for a WS win and identified the Astros as the best place to achieve that. People have suggested that he is now searching for 300 wins, I am of the opinion that he wants to do this on a (sexy) team where ESPN will stroke his ego. I think Verlander is headed for a big city, specifically I think verlander will be degroms replacement when he ends up in Texas or Atlanta. Therefore we are in need of a fifth starter. While we have Garcia/Urquidy as an in-house option, I think that I would look outside of the organization here.

Option One: Koudai Senga – Senga makes plenty of sense to me from a baseball perspective. A player who can throw 100mph, his forkball is where he makes his money. It has earned the name “Ghost Fork” in Japan because of its movement. He is a player who struggles with command, which is why I think that he could be successful on the Astros as a fifth starter. MLB Trade Rumors suggest a contract in the ball park of 75/5 is what he’d be worth.

Option 2: Chris Paddack – Now here is where I have to admit something about myself, I have a weird fascination with former padres players. Paddack in particular has always caught my eye as someone I’ve wanted to add to the team. Paddack has a fastball/(filthy)change-up/curveball/slider mix that interests me. He also had a great 2019 and then appeared to be finding his way again in 2022 before becoming hampered by injuries. He boasts an above average K% and good command to keep his bb% low. I would take a risk on Paddack to battle with Luis Garcia between who goes to the pen and who gets the last slot in the rotation

Conclusion: I dont think Senga comes to Houston to be our fifth starter. Thus, Paddack is my choice here.

Long RP: As stated above I would give it to whoever loses the battle for the SP5 in the eventuality of an injury, they can take over.

MRP: Option One: Tejay Antone – The reds are looking to cut pay roll and antone had strong 2020 and 2021 before getting injured. He is also under team control for several more years. He posses a curve/slider/sinker arsenal. His fastball is able to touch the high ninety’s. He’s been so great for the reds by most metrics and is able to induce plenty of ground balls. While he may not be the lefty dusty wants he is able to do well against lefties. His K% is about ~33% meaning he Ks about 1/3 of the batters he faces.

Option 2:Joe Jiménez – Worse against lefties than antone, Jiménez also puts up great numbers by most metrics. Another flame thrower who sits in the high nineties he has a fastball/slider/change-up mix that is able not as good at inducing ground balls but holds a K% of about 33.3 meaning he Ks about 1/3 of the batters he faces.

Option 3: Maton – He looks ok in some categories but some of his expecteds scare me and I would attempt to improve on him.

Conclusion: Antone is the guy for me.

Now on to the position players – in theory Brantley has been one of my favorite players because he gets on base and doesn’t strike out. Therefor I am looking for similar players in that sense.

Catcher: obviously Martin stays but our backup is up for debate in my mind.

Option One: Yainer Diaz – about time that he makes his way to the mlb he has been a great hitter in the minors who likely deserves his shot. He has only K’d at about 16% in the minors which is much better than lee who is K-ing at 30%.

Option two: Carson Kelly – a great defensive catcher who has an average idea of the plate and K’s and walks at better rates than lee and Maldonado. A possible non tender candidate, he could be someone we attempt to pick up to be our back-up catcher and eventual maldy successor.

Option Three: Danny Jansen – a great catcher who may be on his way out do to the number of catchers the jays possess. Good offensively and good enough defensively Jansen could be the Vazquez to maldy.

Lee: K’s at too high a rate in the minors and while he only got 26 PAs in the majors he seemed to be continuing that trend. If we want a solid defensive catcher Lee is fine but I think that we can get similar defensive output from kelly with slightly better offensive output.

Conclusion: i’d go for kelly at the moment and let Yainer play in AAA a little longer.

First base: Option one – Yuli’s picking ability is under-rated help to this team and he is someone who is very good at not striking out. That being said hes older, his expecteds are declining and he isn’t getting on base.

Option Two: Josh Bell – Offensively hes exactly what I want high walk rate, low K rate. He is also prone to being a really streaky player which is worrysome. Couple that with below average defense worries me about his ability on this team but I think he could be effective.

Option Three: Jose Abreu is everything I’d want elite walk and k rates. He also is a good defensive player. He is slightly older and experienced a down year but should be a top target for our first base hole.

Conclusion: I think I’d go after Abreu as he is everything we could want both defensively and offensively.

Second: Altuve – enough said

Shortstop: Pena impressed this season and I hope to see him build off that but I think people forget that he had a .289 OBP. I believe he’ll build on it but I don’t think he’s quite the player at the plate some think.

Third: Bregman had a bounce back second year which is great to see.

Right Field: lets not be cheap EXTEND TUCKER DAMN IT

Center field: The astros heavily invested in center field by using their first and second round picks on players capable of playing center not to mention barber waiting in the wings. I believe that the Astros will be looking for a three year gap here.

Option one: Brandon Nimmo – I’ll admit at first a really attractive idea to me at first but as I’ll come to later. More the expected stats only matter if you can stay on the field. I remember when people were crying when we didn’t get buxton but he is another player that is incapable to stay on the field. I dont think Nimmo accepts a three year deal and I dont trust him to stay on the field thus I dont think he is the player for us.

Option Two: Bryan Reynolds: Coming off a poor year, I would advise buying low on Reynolds at the moment. I’m a big believer in Reynolds and would love to insert him into the lineup. He had a better 2021 and if he were inserted into a line-up where pitchers can’t pitch around him I think he will be a better player. Reynolds also fits the timeline and ends his contract when we would have replacements in the wings. Alternatively the price to acquire Reynolds would be steep and likely not worth it for us.

Option Three: stick it out with Chas

Conclusion: Chas made a great catch in the WS, and was getting on base at a pretty good clip. I’d go with him.

Left Field: Ok so I started this off by saying my model player is Brantley and here is where I sort of lied. I love Brantley but he is an aging player with an injury history. A great team leader, I think that Brantley should make his way off the team before we are the ones stuck with egg on our face. Yordan played fine in left but I worry about his long term health if we overwork him in the field. Thus, I think we need a player to split time in left with Yordan.

Option One: Max Kepler – A player rumored to possibly be traded this offseason Kepler is exactly what I want. He possesses high walk rates and low k rates. A player who could play center in a pinch. Kepler was shifted about 90% of the time last year. This year with the ban of the shift I expect Kepler to get better. A player who also reached his greatest heights in 2019, I would hope we could get a Bregman esque revival out of him. He’s also a pretty elite defender.

Option two: Jesse Winker – With the acquisition of teoscar Hernandez, I would look to get winker as a player to bounce back. He didn’t preform incredibly well for the M’s but I’d give him another shot here. A much worse defender he fits more of the mold of splitting playing time in left with yordan.

Option 3: Yoshida looks likely to get posted and may be worth a look as a left fielder who loves Bryce harper and a player who is able to get on base at a pretty great clip. I’ll be honest I dont know much about him.

Conclusion: Kepler provides everything I want both offensively and defensively but also can stay on the field and is slightly younger than Brantley. If the Astros are as confident as I am that he could make the switch from right to left then it is undoubtedly a move I’d make.

Utility players:

Middle infield: David hensley -has earned the right to play utility middle infield for the team in my opinion

Infield Corners: Option one: Brian Anderson – Overall more adept at third Brian Anderson can also play both corner outfield spots with a strong arm. He has played a little first base but not much. The Astros in the past have had the ability to turn third baseman into good first baseman though with Yuli and Diaz. He K’d at a high rate this year but has shown in the past that he is able to at least be decent. He earns himself good walk numbers and has a strong arm with good defense. A non-tender candidate I think Anderson would be a good option to play good defense when giving other players a scheduled game off, while still providing adequate offense. Anderson also possesses a high exit velocity which suggests he is a strong batter at the plate.

Option Two: Jeimer Candelario – a player who can play both third and first with neither good fielding nor particularly good hitting. The Astros could bet on bringing in a player who had a much better 2021 but will likely find himself as a non tender candidate now. A switch hitter he offers versatility in many ways but may not be able to overcome his struggles.

Conclusion: Anderson may not possess the offensive upside that Candelario does but he still offers plenty of offensive upside not to mention he is a significantly better player. Brian Anderson can take over the Diaz role.

Outfield UTIL: Option one: Kevin Kiermaier – A strong defender but weak offensively. Kiermaier is strong veteran presence we can add into our dugout. His defense will be strong and he can play in each of the outfield spots. He also wouldn’t be required to play everyday.

Option Two: Cody Bellinger – likely non-tender candidate and former MVP Belli switched his swing and has never been the same. He offers value defensively and upside offensively but I worry that he would be a net negative in the clubhouse.

Conclusion: Jake Meyers has yet to look the same after his shoulder injury and if the Astros believe he can get better we can go back into the year with Meyers than I believe in them because Meyers likely offers more offensive upside than the other two players but if the Astros wanted to bring in a veteran presence in center I think Kiermaier should be our guy.

Trades:

Kepler/Paddack to the Astros

In return the twins receive: Jose Urquidy, Parker Mushinski, Corey Brewer, Ronel Blanco

The Twins get a back end of the rotation starter with probably less upside than Paddack but is also more consistant. Mushinski and Blanco both have potential as relievers (and might contribute this year) and brewer is a struggling high pick outfielder for the twins to take a chance on. If I were the Astros I would try to add Yasser Mercedes who had himself a solid first season and the Astros could take a chance on a young player who could quickly get better, but the twins may not want to part with him do to having given him a large signing bonus just a few years ago. If the Astros can get him I’d be willing to add in Pedro Leon (assuming the twins would add probably one more prospect as Leon has more value at the moment) and kick that can down the road a few years, otherwise I’d be willing to add Matijevic and another low end prospect to make it happen. Matijevic likely is behind whoever we would sign to play first and Diaz as well as being about on the same level as Perez so he is expendable for us but can offer the twins a good bench bat.

Antone/roa to houston Whitley/gonzalez/Kessinger/julks

Whitley and Kessinger represent formerly highly rated prospects by the Astros, Whitley specifically still offers plenty of value. Gonzalez offers more to the reds system and Julks can immediately play in the outfield for the reds despite facing the a blockage on the Astros. Antone doesn’t have as much value as he should after missing 2022 with TJ. Roa is a former TAMU player who has been pretty good in the reds system and should be someone we add with a strong fastball/slider/change-up/curve arsenal.

Anderson/M.D Johnson/Paul McIntosh/Troy Johnston to the Astros

Korey Lee/Julio Robaina/Whitaker/Mckenna

The marlins are in need of bats. Whitaker is a similar batter to soler in my mind for them to produce. Lee represents the opportunity to get an everyday starting catcher. Robaina offers relief pitching upside and Mckenna offers another outfield bat that could quickly come through the system as he is already in AAA.

McIntosh is another catcher we can add to our system who battles deep into counts but isn’t the greatest at hitting but puts the ball in play and gets high reviews for his leadership behind the plate despite not having a strong arm to throw runners out. Johnston is a 1b that has a sweet left swing that stays in the zone for a long time like a left handed Yuli but wasn’t protected from the rule 5. MD Johnson is a high spin rate pitcher with end of the rotation upside but is older and also wasn’t protected from the rule 5.

Carson Kelly and Dom Fletcher/Jorge Barrossa to the Astros

Josh James/Phil Maton/Tyler Ivey/Shay Whitcomb to Arizona

Josh James and Phil Maton represent Strom work projects while Ivey and Whitcomb represent former well regarded prospects for the DBacks to take a chance on. Dom Fletcher plays good defense and was hitting about .300 in AAA and could battle with Meyers to be 4th outfielder but he also K’s at a high rate. Jorge Barrossa is a much younger but probably more toolsy outfielder the Astros could try and trade for instead. Carson Kelly is what I imagine Korey lee’s ceiling as an MLB player with maybe slightly less power. I imagine that if we crave offensive output from catcher we can call up Diaz but at the start of the year he will start in sugar land and Danny Jansen may be slightly too expensive though he is my top option.

FA:

Abreu: 3x19m a year otherwise id go for bell at about 4x16m

Id prefer Senga at 5x15m but I dont think he will want to come here.

Kiermaier: 2x7m

Starting Rotation:

Ace: Framber Valdez LHP

SP2: Lance McCullers Jr. RHP

SP3: Cristian Javier RHP

SP4: Hunter Brown RHP

SP5: Koudai Senga/Chris Paddack

Bullpen:

Long RP: Luis Garcia

MRP1: Héctor Neris RHP

MRP2: Ryne Stanek RHP

MRP3: Tejay Antone/Joe Jiménez

MRP4: Seth Martinez RHP

SU1: Rafael Montero RHP

SU2: Bryan Abreu RHP

CL: Ryan Pressly RHP

Starting Lineup:

Jose Altuve 2B R/ R

Jeremy Peña SS R/ R

Yordan Álvarez DH/LF L/ R

Alex Bregman 3B R/ R

Kyle Tucker RF L/ R

Josh Bell 1B R/ R

Max Kepler LF/DH L/ L

Chas McCormick CF R /L

Martín Maldonado C R/ R

Bench:

C: Carson Kelly/Yannier Diaz R/ R

INF Utility: David Hensley R/ R

LF/RF/3B/1B Utility: Brian Anderson R/ R

OF: Jake Meyers/Kevin Kiermaier R/ L

2023 40-Man in my scenario

Pitchers:

Bryan Abreu, Brandon Bielak, M.D Johnson, Hunter Brown, TJ Antone, Spencer Arrighetti, J.P. France, Luis Garcia, Josh James, Cristian Javier, Seth Martinez, Lance McCullers Jr., Rafael Montero, Jayden Murray, Chris Paddack, Hector Neris, Enoli Paredes, Ryan Pressly, Ryne Stanek, Blake Taylor, Christian Roa, Framber Valdez, Austin Davis

Catchers: Yainer Díaz, Carson Kelly, Martin Maldonado

INFs: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jose Abreu, David Hensley, Troy Johnston, Joe Perez, Jeremy Peña

OFs: Max Kepler, Dominic Fletcher, Kevin Kiermaier, Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Álvarez