Davis Mills has some pretty measurable metrics indicating quite a bit of promise as a prospect

Now before people are all "so and so were good rookie year and did bad, Gardner Minshew 2.0" or something. This isn't about his raw stats which is a bad way to compare prospects unless they were truly horrendous. And when I say I am optimistic about his potential as a franchise QB, I am talking the 2nd tier of QBs.

When those kind of players have good rookie years, it ignores metrics like was their stats from long term stable metrics such as Time to Throw (aka how fast are they reading the field), did they rely on often highlight reel moments while lacking in the steady department etc.

Note: When I praise signs in metrics such as EPA/play as signs of promise going foreward, it's in the context of being a rookie. If he put up those exact numbers next season, I wouldn't consider him a franchise QB. This is due to historical data by PFF etc, the 2nd year a QB plays is the biggest jump in quality of play. And they found that the level they play at in their 2nd season is generally the level/tier of QB they will be the rest of their career. Josh Allen is the exception, but he showed the EPA/play promise starting in 2nd half of his 2nd season.

Some pretty quality scouts like Matt Waldman and Mark Schofield have been pretty positive about him this year based on his growth.

Here's an article with a video (long) on their pre-draft breakdown on Davis Mills: https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2021/04/23/matt-waldmans-rsp-film-room-on-stanford-qb-davis-mills-with-dan-hatman-and-mark-schofield/

Quick Summary:

They weren't going to say he's going to be a franchise QB with 100% confidence or be all "will be a steal" kind of thing. They are very measured in evaluating QBs, not necessarily always correct since there are always question marks.

They generally believed he had traits that could translate into being a franchise QB, but there were question marks in certain areas. But they liked his talent, Waldman considered him a better talent than Zach Wilson. Albeit this is also because they were wary about Wilson as a prospect too.

Pros:

• Read the field like a top prospect
• Very strong understanding of leverage which helps him make very quick decisions generally.

Most people don’t have jobs where they have to possess an insane combination of physical, mental, technical, and intuitive skills with a margin of error that can span less than three seconds. And those who do this job the best actually have the makeup to create a “fudge factor” that can extend that window another second.As we see with these three plays from Davis Mills, one second can make a huge difference. Mills has a fundamental understanding of how to read the leverage of the defender facing his intended target: https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2021/03/03/matt-waldmans-rsp-boiler-room-leverage-reading-and-processing-of-qb-davis-mills-stanford/

But they had some valid question marks that prevented them from saying straight up this guy is definitely going to be a franchise QB.

Cons:

• Mills has “annoying” accuracy that’s just shy of pinpoint when it comes to specific types of throws that he’ll need to make in the NFL.

• There are specific targets that Mills may never develop accuracy with.

• And how much will his lack of experience affect his immediate playability. This was a comment based on them thinking about his career, not talent ability or ability to improve in this regard. They mention this because his career might be affected if he were put in a place where he isn't able to develop or given a proper leash.

This was what Waldman had to say about Mills after week 15: "Davis Mills demonstrated the tools that could make him a better prospect than many thought. His processing and vertical placement continue to improve as the season unfolds and the Texans are taking notice."

And now based on his season, here's some promising signs I found in being optimistic about him going forward.

• 2nd best QB on deep throws (20+ yards)
• Most accurate rookie QB with 61% accurate pass percentage
• Highest passer rating in NFL in the redzone (albeit smaller sample size helps I guess)

In terms of adjusted EPA/play in second stint, he was in the top half of the NFL. People say "that's a biased way to prop him up", no when it comes to evaluating a prospects growth it isn't. Josh Allen (Not saying he will be him, just prospect thing) had a similar jump in EPA/play in the 2nd half of his 2nd season.

One big big trait he has that fits with his pre-draft scouting was again his understanding of leverage leading to quick throws. He did what generally veteran QBs do such as getting the ball out and basically making the OL look better.

For the season, Mills had the 3rd lowest pocket time among QBs. This is due to both him getting the ball out very quickly, and due to our awful OL play. But because he routinely got the ball out very quickly, his Pressure% was 9th in the league. Brady leads this category by an insane margin of (11.1% with 2nd highest being 16.3%).

Now remember though, some of this fast throws were a bit boosted due to shorter throws, but not always the case.

Next Gen Stats data concluded that in terms of projecting year-to-year play, the most stable metrics were Time to Throw (this is purely QB speed metric as opposed to above where it includes being forced to throw faster), Average Intended Air Yards, and Aggressiveness%.

Mills throughout the season was generally in the top 10 week to week (even the Bills game) in lowest Time to Throw and Aggressiveness%. His Average Intended Air Yards overall on the season was 26th, but was around middle of the pack in 2nd half.

TL;DR: He has had some very promising signs in very stable metrics that are consistent year to year such as a pretty fast Time to Throw, Good aggressive% in attacking defenders while being around middle of the pack in limiting bad throw%. Reads the field very well which helps out his OL and lowers his Pressure% despite having the 3rd worst OL.

Projection: Promising metrics that should lead to becoming a solid franchise QB in the 2nd tier. PFF did a bayesian analysis using some of these metrics, they had Mac Jones obviously highest likelihood percentile wise with Davis Mills 2nd.