So every year a bunch of us from /r/ baseball do a pretend baseball offseason simulation. We get 30 armchair GMs together, as well as several agents and commissioners, and run a pretend offseason. We skip the Rule 5 draft, and we decided not to worry about lockout stuff this year, but otherwise, we try to be creative, but realistic just as if we were real life general managers. This year we did it at /r/baseballoffseason2022.

Usually I like to pick a team I'm not a fan of and tackle the challenge of learning about their roster and playing around with it. I decided to try out Houston this year and see what I could do with them/how I could improve the roster while staying realistic. Now I'm posting the results here since you guys are the ones who know this team well; rate my offseason!

Spreadsheet with full roster and transactions if you don't want to read all of the below.

Recap:

I set several primary goals for my offseason at the start of all this:

• Solve the hole at SS
• Upgrade a bullpen that was thin in 2022 and is now losing several key arms to FA, and shore up a talented but risky rotation.
• Do due diligence in investigating the feasibility of possible upgrade options in CF and C, while evaluating the viability of sticking with a 2022 McCormick/Meyers pairing in CF and a Castro/Maldonado/Stubbs rotation at C.
• Do all this while preserving a relatively mediocre minor league system.

I was assigned a 190 million payroll. Personally, I think this team can go up to the luxury tax and will, but I worked with what I had. Because I do think there would be room to increase during the season, I decided that I was comfortable spending up to my payroll limit (usually in these sims when it's a harder limit, I'll try to come in a few mil below for subsequent moves).

I'll address my various moves by goal. Incoming players will be bolded.

Shortstop

This is the big one. I explored several options, looking into all the various free agent shortstops, contemplating the possibility of trusting Jeremy Pena off the bat, and even trading for a mid-tier option such as Paul DeJong. Ultimately, however, Carlos Correa made too much sense. I understand their hesitation, but I do think this team has the means and the need IRL. I was able to negotiate an agreement that I think is fair but also reasonable for the team:

• 8 years, 263 million with an opt-out after year 3, and a vesting option after year 8 for an additional $61 million which vests if he plays at least 520 games over years 5-8 of the contract, plus full NTC.

The max value of 10/324 is still in line with the contract Corey Seager just got, but by making the final two years vesting based off of games played, there's a little bit of protection if he suffers significant injuries (the option is set so it will not trigger if he misses a full 162).

Other Positional moves:

This is not a roster with a ton of needs, but I identified centerfield and first base as two areas of potential need, as well as catcher.

• I strongly considered standing pat at CF, as Jake Meyers is a promising talent and Chas McCormick has been an elite defender thus far in his young career. However, with Meyers' recent shoulder surgery, I acknowledged that there was some risk in counting on McCormick. Enter Byron Buxton. ​For the price of prospects Korey Lee, Shawn Dubin, Jaime Melendez, and Yohander Martinez, I added a player who projects for 4-5 wins at CF, which is a significant marginal upgrade. Korey Lee is a loss, but catching prospects are finicky enough, and Buxton good enough, that I felt comfortable letting go of one back-end top 100 prospect. Dubin was expendable given the sheer amount of relief depth Houston has, and the latter two are interesting but not terribly significant prospects. McCormick now becomes a starter-quality 4th outfielder, making this a deep OF.

• Given the weak catching market this year (and far better projected market next year), I elected to stand pat at catcher as I do think Maldonado and Castro will hold down the fort just fine for one more year–Maldonado with quality defense and Castro with left handed pop. I did sign Wilson Ramos to a minor league contract, as well as keep Garrett Stubbs on my 40-man, for a little bit of depth.

• Similarly, while I have reservations about Yuli Gurriel's ability to repeat his 2021 production, I decided picking up his reasonably priced (8 million) team option made the most sense. He'll provide good defense and a good contact bat hitting at the bottom of this lineup, and in a year when he is a full-fledged free agent, the team can evaluate 1B more fully.

• I nontendered Aledmys Diaz at his 4 million price and replaced him with Jonathan Villar, who's coming off of a strong year with the Mets, at 3 million to play utility.

Pitching:

This is where I was most active:

• I moved more or less immediately to bring back Justin Verlander. In the exclusive negotiation period, we agreed on a 1 year, 11 million deal with incentives of 2 million for hitting the 20 and 30 games started marks (15 million max), plus a 19 million mutual option with 6 million team buyout. I modeled my offer off of the deal that Corey Kluber signed last year coming off of injury, and after seeing what Verlander got IRL I'm pleased with this.
• I shopped Jake Odorizzi around, but ultimately decided that it would be best to keep him for now. I think he's a solid 3/4 starter, and given the injury risks inherent with Verlander (coming off TJS) and McCullers (forearm scare during playoffs), I think having 6 solid options to start the year is just smart. Similarly, while I had good offers on Jose Urquidy, I like his upside enough in addition to the above that I elected to stand pat.
• I also moved quickly to sign Brooks Raley back during the exclusive period. With a strong strikeout rate, elite Statcast exit velocity numbers, and a history as a starter that leads me to believe he's capable of going multiple innings if needed, Raley was a priority especially in a weak left handed relief market. We agreed on 1 year, 3 million with a 4 million team option–a deal that also looks great now after what Tampa Bay signed him to.
• I also signed hard-throwing Reds RHP Michael Lorenzen to a 3 year, 15 million contract. IRL, he's signed with LAA IRL as a starting pitcher (1 year, 7 mil); personally, I like him better as a reliable relief arm. He has a history of being able to eat innings in the pen, which this roster can really use; I see him pairing well with Cristian Javier in that regard. He also features one of the most intriguing pitch mixes among the relief market; I'm confident he can return to being a setup-quality late inning arm.
• I'm ambivalent about Blake Taylor as the secondary bullpen lefty, so I traded him to San Diego for RHP Austin Adams. Adams hits a lot of batters, but his slider is borderline unhittable and he carries significant upside if he can harness his command a little more.
• To replace Blake Taylor, I traded Jose Siri (rendered entirely expendable behind Buxton, McCormick, and Meyers) to San Francisco for LHP Caleb Baragar and 3B prospect Luis Toribio, a move which also improves the farm (Toribio has an exciting bat). Baragar features a good high spin fastball/curve combination which the Astros love; he has options so he'll be the first lefty up when needed. I think he's as good as Taylor right now and can be better.
• I tendered arbitration contracts to Phil Maton (1.4 million), Ryne Stanek (2.1), and Josh James (700k). I also tendered a contract to Rafael Montero, but knowing he wouldn't crack the pen, flipped him and his 3.1 million contract (along with RHP prospect Diosmerky Taveras) for Cubs relief prospect Ethan Roberts, who features some of the highest spin rates in the minor leagues. He'll function as relief depth for this year.
• I also signed RHP Dillon Maples to a minor league contract. He struggles to throw strikes, but the stuff is legitimate. He'll try to put it together in the minors.
• James, Baragar, and Paredes all will serve as up/down optionable depth. Bryan Abreu is out of options and will compete for a spot in ST (he'll be the favorite). I tried to trade Pedro Baez, but was unsuccessful, likely due to his health questions. We'll see how his health looks in spring training, and as needs open up in the league, we will likely find a taker for either him or one of the other fringe RP on the roster. Either way, this team goes into spring training with a very deep cadre of relief talent, which isn't a bad thing.

Final Roster/Depth Chart:

C: Maldonado, Castro

In Minors: Stubbs, Ramos, Yainer Diaz

1B: Gurriel, Alvarez (DH)

In Minors: Taylor Jones

2B: Altuve

SS: Correa, Villar (Utility IF)

In Minors: Jeremy Pena, Pedro Leon

3B: Bregman

OF: Buxton, Tucker, Brantley, McCormick

Injured: Jake Meyers

Rotation: McCullers, Valdez, Verlander, Garcia, Urquidy, Odorizzi

In Minors: Hunter Brown, Brandon Bielak, Peter Solomon, Jonathan Bermudez. Forrest Whitley also lurks.

Bullpen: Pressly, Maton, Adams, Raley, Baez*, Stanek, Lorenzen, Javier, Abreu*

Depth: James, Baragar, and Paredes

*See final bullet point above. I realize this pen starts 9 deep; I'm expecting one of Baez or Abreu to move by the time ST is out, but the team will have the luxury of choosing between a few options.

Final payroll: just under 189 million.

Thoughts welcomed!