Daily dose of Yordan (ALDS preview)

A bit of a different take on DDoY here, as with no games to play until the ALDS and a couple of off days, I thought I'd analyze all the pitchers on the White Sox' roster, and see how they stack up to Yordan in preparation of the coming ALDS. Going to do a detailed analysis of every starter and then a quick write up of him vs every reliever, before writing about some key matchups and an overall outlook.

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Starters:

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Lance Lynn

While on paper, Lynn may be extremely imposing to the Astros lineup (and in particular Yordan), a closer look reveals that it may be a lot more favorable to Yordan than previously thought. Lynn throws around 90% fastballs, most of which are high spin 4 seamers and cutters low in the zone. He doesn't throw particularly hard and his offspeed pitches aren't particularly intimidating, as both his curve and changeup are primarily used low and inside, in Yordan's sweet spot. The stats back that up, as 11 at bats Yordan is hitting a godly .455 against Lynn with a .727 SLG. Lynn will definitely be trying to get Yordan to ground into soft contact to the shifted infield, so as long as he doesn't get jammed by fastballs near his hands or the low and outside junk he should be relatively fine. Lynn is a zone pounder so ideally you would want Yordan to be aggressive on the fastballs, but don't be surprised if he's unnaturally passive early, seeking out an offspeed pitch in his favorite quadrant.

Lucas Giolito

Unlike Lynn, who has superior counting stats but has a questionable matchup advanced metrics wise, Giolito fucking scares the s**t out of me. He's a lot more dependent on his offspeed pitches, throwing them around half of the time, and induces a lot of soft contact as a result. Giolito has owned Yordan and the Astros as a whole this season, and it feels like Yordan will struggly against Giolito's blend of power fastballs and finesse offspeed pitches. The best case scenario for Yordan here is probably to work ahead in the count after taking some offspeed pitches out of the zone, and then capitalize on a hittable fastball that Giolito will have to throw in the zone. Overall I don't like this matchup at all, good thing Yordan only needs to face him for 1 game.

Dylan Cease

Cease had a breakout year in 2021, and with Carlos Rodon's status up in the air, it's likely that he will be starting game 3. He has an elite two pitch combo, with a fastball that possesses elite movement and velocity to go with his ridiculously spinning breaking ball. While it may be intimidating to first hear that, the good news is that such velocity comes at a tradeoff, which is that when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. His baseball savant page shows that despite his electric arsenal, his barrel % is in the 15th percentile, and his average exit velocity is in the 38th percentile. This, combined with his bad walk rate (3.7 BB/9) leads me to have a pretty positive outlook on this matchup. As long as Yordan lays off on the offspeed out of the zone he'll get some juicy fastballs he can barrel for hard contact. Cease is also 0-3 with a 6.60 ERA against the Astros as a whole, so I don't really fear the possibility of Yordan doing good but the other hitters going cold in game 3. Oh god now that I say that Cease will pitch a CGSO with 15 K's like Clemens in the world series.

Carlos Rodon

As mentioned above, Rodon's status for the ALDS is up in the air, as numerous articles have stated that although he is "hopeful" he can pitch in the playoffs, La Russa will not use him if he is not 100%. That is good news to hear on the other side, as Rodon, as a lefty with great stuff and peripherals, is probably the weakest matchup for Yordan in the White Sox starting pitching bunch. Rodon absolutely carved up the Astros lineup in the regular season, and although Yordan did go 2-6 off him, both hits were weak singles and he also had 2 strikeouts on bad pitches. As a result while I wish the best for him and hope he makes a speedy recovery from his injury, I want no part of him and I hope he doesn't pitch an inning in the ALDS.

Dallas Keuchel

I was originally hesitant to include Keuchel in this list, as he was borderline unplayable in the regular season this year and might not even be on the postseason roster. However, as one of four lefties on the White Sox major league roster at the moment, there's a strong chance he will come out of relief to face Houston's most dangerous lefties, in particular Brantley and Yordan. That aside I am not scared of Keuchel in the slightest. His Baseball Savant page is honestly pretty embarrassing, the only thing he's good at is inducing weak contact. He's definitely going to come out in a double play situation with a lefty up, and in that case, Yordan simply needs to get a good swing off on Keuchel's unintimidating fastballs and not hit it into the ground to have success. Having pitched in Houston for quite a while, it's also likely that the Astros know Keuchel better than anyone, and that may come in handy in a potential matchup. Because of this, despite him having the platoon advantage I am licking my chops if I'm Yordan and I get to face Keuchel, especially with runners on.

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Relievers:

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Aaron Bummer

Bummer is a classic high strikeout, high walk reliever with a great fastball but also gets hit really hard. He has dominated against lefties in his career (.472 OPS allowed), but across 7.1 innings facing the Astros he's allowed an abysmal 8.59 ERA with 3(!) wild pitches. His best pitches (fastball and slider) also happen to be thrown most where Yordan feasts, low and inside. If he avoids the junk low and outside and connects well on a fastball, I could see some fireworks happening, but if Yordan is off I could see some ugly strikeouts too.

Ryan Burr

Despite the good stats this year, I'm not scared of Burr at all in a potential matchup. He's allowed a career .397 OBP to lefties and his stats paint the picture of a guy without intimidating stuff and a flat fastball that merely gets by instead of striking out guys. Like Lynn, he heavily relies on his fastball as his go to pitch, throwing it above 90% of the time, but unlike Lynn, he lacks the secondaries needed to take that next step. If Yordan faces him he should sit dead red every pitch, Burr doesn't really have a fallback plan.

Garrett Crochet

Among the lefties in Chicago's pen, there's no one I fear more than Crochet, and it's not particularly close. His fastball blazes like the sun and his secondaries are damn good and when executed well should be lethal for a power heavy lefty like Yordan. However, like most of the pitchers the White Sox have, he struggles with walks and gives up a lot of hard contact. If Yordan chases or is slow on fastballs he's screwed, but like the other pitchers if he can command the zone and force Crochet into throwing a mistake fastball that sucker is getting smashed.

Matt Foster

Not sure if he will even make the postseason roster, as he had an ERA of 6 this year and underlying metrics were just as flattering. He doesn't strike out many guys and his stuff is unimposing, so like Keuchel Yordan should be begging for an opportunity to face him.

Michael Kopech

Kopech is a pretty interesting pitcher to analyze in a head to head, as his savant stats are elite and he's actually better against lefties than righties. Like nearly all the White Sox pitchers, his fastball is elite and his slider and curve are nasty as well. Like the other White Sox pitchers though, he does have some command issues (see a common theme here?) and he gets his outs by pounding the zone, as shown by his 34th percentile chase rate. The most important thing to note here is that Yordan cannot be passive against him, if he takes pitches off or lofts into an at bat he could easily be down 0-2 before he blinks an eye. This aggressiveness also can't come at the cost of his discipline, as if he goes down the count Kopech will make him expand his zone. My analysis probably makes it sound like Kopech is some kind of insurmountable monster that Yordan can't beat, but make no mistake, Yordan can do damage if he plays it right. Something to note: Kopech's changeup is rarely thrown, but it isn't that effective and he throws it mostly in Yordan's sweet spot. If he throws one expect Yordan to all in swing on it.

Reynaldo Lopez

Unlike the majority of the White Sox staff, who have great stuff but bad command issues, Lopez stands out as someone who doesn't walk many guys, but also has a very flat (but fast) fastball and lukewarm secondary pitches. He's very good against lefties, and excels at getting soft contact off his fastball into the ground (13% launch angle this year on average). Like Keuchel, Yordan needs to be able to make good contact on the pitches, and not settle for a groundout or lazy fly ball. He should also be pretty aggressive against Lopez too, as he will primarily get pitches in the zone and needs to capitalize on them.

Jose Ruiz

Ruiz represents the extreme outliers of the White Sox' pitching staff perfectly, as he has a super fast fastball with great spin. That fastball masks his underlying issues, which include 1(!) percentile average exit velocity and 1(!) hard hit percentage. His terrible peripherals combined with his extremely mediocre offspeed offerings make this a pretty heavy advantage in Yordan's favor, as he's one of the best offspeed hitters in the league and hits the ball hard pretty much every time.

Ryan Tepera

Tepera had a breakout year this season after years spent being a merely "good" reliever. His whiff % and strikeout rate exploded this year, all while maintaining his great soft contact and hard hit rates. I know I'm supposed to be this Yordan expert that knows everyone's strengths and weaknesses, but Tepera is a total wild card to me. Interestingly, his barrel % of 50th percentile is well below what someone like him should have, maybe that's something the Astros will exploit by swinging for power heavily. Other than that Yordan should focus on hitting his fastball, which isn't very fast and is predominantly on the low outside half of the plate. Maybe also ask Ryan Pressley on how he pitches, because Tepera's low velocity high spin fastball and amazing peripherals reminds me of him a lot.

Craig Kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel's 2021 season is the story of two halves, the 0.49 ERA he put up as a cub with a 1.10 FIP and the 5.09 ERA he had as a member of the White Sox. I have no clue which version of Kimbrel will show up in the playoffs, but even throughout the year, he's been getting hit hard when he's gotten hit at all (like Liam Hendriks, who is below him) and his walk rate is pretty substandard. Yordan should take a wait-and-see approach with Kimbrel, and first see if he can get in the zone before becoming aggressive on his fastball. As the Astros saw firsthand in the 2018 ALCS, an off Kimbrel with subpar command can still get outs if the offense isn't wise about which pitches to swing at.

Liam Hendriks

Remember when I said Kopech looks like this insurmountable monster but actually is beatable? Well, Hendricks actually is that monster, and uh, he's even more imposing. His savant page is one worth drooling over, as his velocity, spin, K rate, and slugging percentage are all immaculate. He also has amazing command for a reliever, with a historic 113 strikeout to 7 walks in 2021. However, Hendriks isn't perfect, as (somehow) he has a tendency to give up quite a bit of hard contact, in the rare instances where he does give up a hit. 11 of his 20 runs given up this year were on the long ball, and he allowed a career high launch angle and hard hit % on hits allowed. Yordan's best play here is probably to be super passive in the beginning and work into a hitters count, all while sitting dead read in his favorite zone.

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Final thoughts:

Looking through the list of sox relievers I'm surprised by the sheer depth they have. There's a lot of guys that are really solid contributors and all have their own endearing qualities. However, I'm also struck by how replaceable the guys are as well. A lot of the guys seem like they came from Multiplicity, with most of them being the same generic build of super high velo guys with good stuff that all have their different warts. That being said, the series will hinge on two key things:

A) How well Chicago can utilize their lefties against Yordan

Chicago's pitching staff is predominantly righties with high strikeout stuff that like to work down and away to righties, and while that may work against guys like Bregman, Altuve, or Correa to an extent, those pitches go right into the sweet spot of Houston's righties like Brantley and Yordan. They should feast against those pitches, and so it's going to be important how La Russa uses his limited lefty arms in relief, particularly in high leverage situations. As we've discussed, Yordan is a very good matchup against Bummer and Keuchel, and Crochet can only pitch one inning at most and is pretty inexperienced. Rodon's potential return will be huge here, but it's up to Yordan first and foremost to do well against the lefties that La Russa has at his disposal right now.

B) How Yordan does against high-velocity fastballs high in the zone against Chicago's righties

As I've mentioned before, Chicago's righties all have good stuff but tend to struggle to command it, especially the relievers. Yordan is one of the best in the game at hitting fastballs, but only when he's prepared for it and they're mistakes. If he goes down 0-2, there's a good chance he's going to have to protect the plate and chase out of the zone with the many nasty offspeed pitches the White Sox staff has. Thus it's going to be crucial for him to be selectively aggressive early and work into good counts so that he can get good pitches he can capitalize on.

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If you made it this far, thanks a lot for reading! Wanted to do something special to commemorate the start of the postseason, and this felt like a good way to waste ~3 hours of my day. Hopefully Yordan and the Astros are able to take advantage of the White Sox in the ways I've detailed above. Game 1 is right around the corner, I'll see you then.