Texans vs Jaguars: Week 10 Game Preview

Hey y’all, miss you guys! I haven’t written an article in a bit, but was able to put together a full breakdown of the Texans-Jaguars matchup this week.

I know a lot of people are frustrated or down on the season after the Denver game, and I get it. The injuries, the offensive inconsistency, Stroud going down vs DEN right when it started clicking for him — a lot feels off. But if any path to the playoffs still exists, it starts here. This is about as “season on the line” as it gets. Back-against-the-wall, at home, division opponent, both teams banged up, margins slim.

A couple of the points I break down in detail: -Why stopping the run early is the single biggest key — if Houston shuts down Etienne, the Jaguars’ offense becomes extremely limited, especially with the WR/TE injuries they’re dealing with. -Trevor Lawrence has struggled significantly vs zone coverage this season, and the Texans are one of the highest-volume and most effective zone defenses in the league. -If the Texans force Jacksonville into obvious passing situations, the matchups up front (Danielle Hunter vs Walker Little, Will Anderson vs Anton Harrison) strongly favor Houston. -Replacing Pitre is more about structure than personnel — likely more 4–3 in early run situations, with Myles Bryant used primarily as nickel in known passing downs. -Offensively, this needs to be a pass to open the run game. Davis Mills actually fits the quick-game rhythm approach well. Mills doesn’t need to be a hero — he just needs to stay on time, move chains, and play complementary football to support the defense. -Nick Caley has to adjust quickly if the run game isn’t efficient early. This can’t be another stubborn downhill script into negative plays and 3rd-and-long.

And I also mention the parallel to 2023 — the “must-have” backup QB divisional game (Case Keenum over Mills vs Titans). Similar situation: defense first, QB just needs to operate the structure.

If you’re interested in how the Texans can actually win this game and what I think the blueprint looks like, take a look!

Would love to hear thoughts, counterpoints, adjustments, anything y’all have seen too. This one is huge.