53-Man Roster Prediction Heading Into The Final Preseason Game

Since Sunday and Monday are going to be popular days for predicting the roster, I wanted to get ahead of the game by posting mine today. Barring injury, I don’t think the final preseason game will change much about who’s in and who’s out at this point. Aside from the 53-man roster, I also tried to predict the practice squad for fun. One thing to note is that these predictions are all what I think the Texans will do, not what I think they should do. I also really have no way of knowing what players the Texans might pick up off of waivers once final cut downs occur, so I only tried to predict using the players already on the roster. So, without further ado, here are my predictions:

OFFENSE (25)

QB (2): Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV, Davis Mills

PS: Tim Boyle (vet)

Cut: Case Keenum

Right off the bat, I already have a controversial cut. I spent the entire offseason thinking that Case Keenum’s spot as QB3 was secured, but DeMeco’s comments about there being a competition for that role made me raise an eyebrow. Keenum coming in after Boyle in the Steelers game finally makes sense! The new addendum to last year’s emergency QB rule also favors Boyle. For those who don’t know, the 3rd emergency QB can now come off of the practice squad every week instead of having to be on the 53 man roster (at the cost of counting as one of your two practice squad elevations). I don’t know that Keenum would want to come off the practice squad at this point in his career, and he could also be at risk of getting picked up by a team that wants a smart vet QB in their QB room. If I’m wrong and those two things aren’t a concern for the Texans, then I could see him on the practice squad instead of Boyle.

RB (4): Joe Mixon, Cam Akers, Dare Ogunbowale, Dameon Pierce

PS: Jawhar Jordan, British Brooks

Cut: JJ Taylor

Behind Mixon, I think Cam Akers has done enough to not only be on this squad, but compete for RB2 snaps. Ogunbowale is a favorite of the coaching staff for his overall utility, so I really don’t think he’s in much danger of being cut. Now, here’s controversial take #2- I think Dameon Pierce makes the roster. I know that fans have really soured on Pierce in the last few weeks, and hell, if I was the one making the decisions, I too would cut him so that he can find a team with a better scheme fit. But for better or worse, I think the Texans still believe in Pierce, as DeMeco has pretty adamantly defended him during his press conferences. Jawhar Jordan and British Brooks end up on the practice squad, and no, neither of these old rookies are at risk of being scooped up by another team. I feel bad about JJ Taylor getting cut, and I do think the Texans like him, but he hasn’t done quite enough to stick around.

FB (1): Andrew Beck

PS: Troy Hairston

Cut: Nick Bawden

This one should be pretty straightforward as long as Beck stays healthy. If Beck’s injury issues persist into the regular season, he could end up on the PUP list, which would allow Hairston to temporarily make the roster.

WR (6): Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Xavier Hutchinson, John Metchie III, Ben Skowronek

PS: Steven Sims (vet), Johnny Johnson III

Cut: Noah Brown, Robert Woods, Quintez Cephus

I’m fairly certain that I’ll be the only person doing roster predictions who will have this combination of wide receivers making the squad. For the longest time, I was convinced that Metchie and Hutchinson were in direct competition with each other, and that one would make the roster and the other would be cut. Personally, I’m still iffy on whether Metchie has really done enough to make the roster, even with his performance against the Giants. But the Texans, and CJ in particular, seem to really love him and want him to succeed. So whether he’s earned it or not, I just can’t see him going anywhere. On the other end of the spectrum, Xavier Hutchinson has shown way too much improvement since year 1 to be able to justify getting rid of him. With the Big 3 WRs in front of them, I think the Texans will feel comfortable holding onto both of their “high potential” receivers.

My controversial take #3 is that the Texans will keep Ben Skowronek over Noah Brown and Robert Woods. I first started thinking about Noah Brown getting cut about a week and a half ago, and the idea has started picking up steam with others as well. While he’s currently a better wide receiver than everyone else besides the Big 3, his glass bones and paper skin are what I think keep him off the roster. Woods is the biggest enigma in the WR room, and he very well may make the team, but he seems to have had his role in the offense diminished this offseason. I think Skowronek is getting majorly slept on as someone who can make this roster. The Texans traded for him despite already having a loaded depth chart at the position, and he was a special teams captain with the Rams. Metchie doesn’t play much special teams, and Hutchinson is still pretty new at it, so I slotted the best special teams guy, Skowronek, as WR6. I have Steven Sims on the practice squad as someone who could be elevated on game days for kick return duty.

TE (3): Dalton Schultz, Brevin Jordan, Cade Stover

PUP: Teagan Quitoriano

Cut: None

The top 3 seems pretty set here. I have Quitoriano starting the season on the PUP list, but I don’t know what they would do with him after he comes back from injury. Maybe he would survive on the practice squad? I originally had Dalton Keene on the practice squad, but his season ended when he was placed on IR earlier in the week.

IOL (5): Juice Scruggs, Shaq Mason, Kenyon Green, Jarrett Patterson, Kendrick Green

PS: Dieter Eiselen (vet)

Cut: Chris Reed

Patterson should be safe as the backup center. Kendrick Green is decent as the backup for Green #1. Eiselen and Reed are the options for a veteran presence on the practice squad. While Reed started a couple of the preseason games, he really didn’t look very good, so I predict that he’ll get axed.

OT (4): Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard, Blake Fisher, Nick Broeker

IPP: Kilian Zierer

PS: David Sharpe (vet)

PUP: Charlie Heck

Cut: Cam Erving

After filling in as the starting LT for LT all offseason, Blake Fisher is entrenched as the swing tackle. Nick Broeker has looked rough at times, but I think the Texans are going to value his ability to play both tackle and guard. Kilian Zierer has been designated as the Texans’ international player this year, so he’s a freebie who doesn’t count against the roster. Woohoo! Since the backup tackles on the roster are very young, the Texans will likely keep a veteran on the practice squad as insurance. Right now I think Sharpe has the edge over recent signing Cam Erving, although a recent injury to Sharpe could cause the Texans to favor Erving. Charlie Heck hasn’t practiced since a plantar fasciitis diagnosis, so I have him starting the season on the PUP list.

DEFENSE (25)

EDGE (5): Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., Derek Barnett, Jerry Hughes, Ali Gaye

PS: Solomon Byrd, Malik Fisher

SUSP: Denico Autry

NFI: Dylan Horton

Cut: Pheldarius Payne

With Denico Autry’s suspension keeping him out for the first six weeks of the season, the back end of the EDGE depth chart has opened up for Jerry Hughes and Ali Gaye. Hughes, a 15(!) year veteran, has had a good camp after being a late re-sign, and Gaye has gotten a lot of usage during the preseason after spending last year on the practice squad. 7th rounder Solomon Byrd and The Other Fisher have had moments here and there in the preseason, so they’ve both earned a spot on the practice squad. Dylan Horton was placed on the Non-Football Injury list, with no indication on whether he’ll return during the season or not.

DT (4): Foley Fatukasi, Mario Edwards, Khalil Davis, Kurt Hinish

PS: Marcus Harris, McTelvin Agim (vet)

PUP: Tim Settle Jr.

Cut: None

Fatukasi and Edwards have established themselves as the starters at the DT position. Embarrassingly, Edwards wasn’t even an honorable mention in my first roster prediction I did before training camp started. Oops. Khalil Davis has been solid, so he shouldn’t have anything to worry about on cutdown day. With few great options available, Hinish somehow makes the roster again. 7th round pick Marcus Harris ends up on the practice squad after a few flashy plays in preseason. I have some extra spots on the PS, so Nick Caserio’s favorite guy McTelvin Agim makes it too. Tim Settle… well, I don’t know what the Texans are going to do with this guy. He’s missed a significant portion of training camp with an injury, and there’s no real indication on when he’ll be back. For now I have him being placed on the PUP list, but he’s also a candidate to get cut, which would be disappointing for a guy who was seen as a potentially important rotational piece when he was signed.

LB (6): Azeez Al-Shaair, Christian Harris, Henry To’oto’o, Jake Hansen, Neville Hewitt, Jamal Hill

PS: Max Tooley

Cut: Del’Shawn Phillips, Jacob Phillips, Tarique Barnes

Despite our collective fears about the depth of the linebacker room, the top 5 guys feel pretty set. To’oto’o, a 5th rounder from last year, and Hansen, who has been having a great camp, are fairly safe. Neville Hewitt is a special teams ace, so he isn’t going anywhere. But that final spot… I’d like to give it to Del’Shawn Phillips, but I get the distinctive feeling that 6th rounder Jamal Hill is DeMeco’s special project on this team. Yes, they could just put him on the practice squad, but I think the fear of another team scooping him up, no matter how unlikely it may be, will keep him on the roster. Max Tooley has been nice for an undrafted rookie, so he makes the practice squad. It’s a shame that he’s already 26 years old, but oh well. Phillips #2 and Barnes have had a moment here or there, but not enough to stick around.

S (5): Jimmie Ward, Jalen Pitre, Eric Murray, Calen Bullock, Lonnie Johnson Jr.

PS: Brandon Hill

Cut: MJ Stewart

The Texans utilizing 4-safety looks against the Rams during their joint practice really re-affirms my thoughts that they’ll keep 5 on the roster instead of just 4. Murray has actually looked pretty good during preseason, but rookie Calen Bullock is hot on his trail for a starting spot. In what might be a surprise pick, I have Lonnie Johnson Jr. making the roster over MJ Stewart. I think the two of them are pretty comparable in terms of skill both at safety and on special teams, but I think the fact that Johnson could play cornerback in a pinch gives him a slight edge. Future savior of the safety room Brandon Hill spends another year on the practice squad.

CB (5): Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Desmond King II, Jeff Okudah, CJ Henderson

PS: Troy Pride Jr., Myles Bryant (vet)

Cut: Mike Ford, Kris Boyd, D’Angelo Ross

Since Pitre has been spending some of his time as the nickel corner, I think the Texans will feel comfortable only carrying 5 CBs. Desmond King might have some trust issues after being a surprise cut last year, but he should be safe this time. Although Okudah has spent time injured in the back half of camp, he was solid when he did play, so he’s in. The last spot is terribly difficult to predict. None of the remaining corners have really shown much reason to keep them around. I went with Henderson mostly because the Texans have him listed ahead of the others on their unofficial depth chart. However, he doesn’t provide much on special teams, so I could also see the Texans going with someone who has more utility in that area instead. The practice squad is a total crapshoot. Troy Pride Jr. interests me the most of the remaining players, so he was chosen among the rabble. Myles Bryant is nickel-only, so he provides an emergency option behind Pitre and King. Mike Ford has a shot due to the fact that he signed a 2-year contract, but realistically, his poor play in preseason should keep him out.

SPECIAL TEAMS (3)

K (1): Kai’mi Fairbairn

P (1): Tommy Townsend

LS (1): Jon Weeks

Nothing new to see here, as no one was brought in during training camp to compete with any of these three guys.