4/18/2024 Astros RISP Splits

The pitching is awful, let's get that out of the way. I don't think an in-depth analysis in necessary there. Just know the Astros ERA+ is 76, dead last in MLB. Now another big point of discussion this year has been the hitting dropping off w/ RISP. How true is this? Here's some data:

*For stats I have (lowest) next to, I organized them by ascending order. So for those stats, the higher the ranking, the better.

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Stat	No splits (ranking)	RISP splits (ranking)
AVG	.268 (3)	.255 (16-T)
OBP	.341 (4)	.333 (15)
SLG	.428 (5)	.356 (20)
OPS	.769 (4)	.690 (18)
wRC+	126 (2)	104 (16-T)
BABIP	.301 (7)	.309 (13)
K% (lowest)	17.1 (2)	18.2 (7-T)
BB%	9.2 (13)	10.7 (15-T)

This offense ranks in the top-tier overall but becomes mid w/ RISP. For reference, only one other team in the overall top 10 wRC+ has a drop-off similar to the Astros w/ RISP: the Dodgers from 115 to 85 (yet they're 3rd in MLB in runs scored w/ 106 while HOU is tied at 14 w/ 87 runs).

The number that stood out most to me doing this table was SLG, at a .072 dip w/ RISP. So I decided to look at batted ball stats between the same splits.

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Stat	No splits (ranking)	RISP Splits (ranking)
Line-drive %	18.7 (24-T)	16.7 (27)
Groundball % (lowest)	41.3 (10-T)	46.0 (21)
Flyball %	39.9 (6)	37.3 (13)
Infield Flyball % (lowest)	7.1 (1)	12.5 (23)
Soft-hit % (lowest)	12.5 (1)	14.6 (8-T)
Hard-hit %	30.8 (13)	29.1 (19)

I think we have a partial-answer now; our hitters are making much worse contact w/ RISP. Now as to why, that I can't say for certain. Could be that they show less patience at the plate and get too aggressive. Are we simply unlucky and our worst hitters come up to bat w/ RISP more often than our best hitters? Or are they focused on hitting HRs, swinging out of their mechanics thus resulting in more pop-ups? All of the above?

Obviously, it's still early into the season and a lot can change, for better and for worse. But I thought this was a fun topic to further dig into.