2024 Hurricane Season YTD vs Average, Projections

9/30/2024 – Most forecasters predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be a monster, based on high sea-surface temperatures, Accumulated Cyclone Energy and a developing La Niña. But so far, judging by the numbers, the season has been close to average.

I compiled the tables below through data on the National Hurricane Center archives and news reports.

2024 Hurricane Season Summary to Date

Through September 30	By This Date in Average Year	In 2024
Named Storms	10	11
Hurricanes	5	4
Major Hurricanes	2	2

30-Year Average for Climate

Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

Here’s how a season typically develops.

Beryl set a record this year. It was the earliest Cat 5 hurricane in recorded history. Otherwise, you can see that this season lines up with the averages for “number of storms” pretty well. Compared to the average for the last three decades, we’ve had:

• One more named storm
• One less hurricane
• The same number of major hurricanes.

Here’s a breakdown on the storms so far this year.

2024-Storm Data Through September

Storm	Dates	Max Winds
TS Alberto	19-20 Jun	50
MH Beryl	28 Jun-9 Jul	165
TS Chris	30 Jun-1 Jul	45
H  Debby	3-9 Aug	80
H  Ernesto	12-20 Aug	100
H Francine	9-14 Sept	100
TS Gordon	13-15 Sept	45
MH Helene	24-29 Sept	140
H Isaac	25-? Sept	105
TS Joyce	27-30 Sept	50
TS Kirk	30 Sept – ?	*

Comparing the two tables above, you can see that we had:

• Two storms in August compared to the normal four
• Six storms in September compared to the normal four.

That raises the question, “Will be see a sudden burst of late season activity that fulfills the dire predictions for the season?”

Comparison to Predictions

Earlier this year, I ran several stories about three seasonal outlooks.

Colorado State University predicted a 50%+ increase over the 30-year average for each category (named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes).

TropicalStormRisk.com, a British website which has won insurance industry awards predicted that North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 would be more than 50% above the long-term average (1950-1923) and 30% above the average for the last three decades (1991-2020).

And as late as August 8, NOAA said we had a 90% chance of an above average hurricane season with:

• 17-20 named storms
• 8-13 hurricanes
• 4-7 major hurricanes

Of course, the season doesn’t end for two more months, but we’re already four months into it. And usually, by October, activity is tailing off.

Unless there’s a sudden burst late season activity, we will probably fall short of those dire estimates this year.

Of course, as Helene’s 600 mile swath of destruction just reminded us, it only takes one storm to make a bad year for you.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/30/2024

2589 Days since Hurricane Harvey

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