2024 Houston Astros Starters: OF Chas McCormick

Good morning, y'all. Welcome to part 7 of this series! Previously, we've looked at Yordan,Jeremy Pena and the rest of the infield. Today, we are looking at my favorite Astro, aside from Altuve: the man, the dump, the hero of Game 5 in the 2022 WS, Chazzy Fizz. Now while u/booger_dick (is he alive?) is the conductor of the Chas Train, I am the first mate. My house Stans Chas. With that being said, I'll still do my best to provide an objective analysis of Chas. But no promises.

DISCLAIMER: this isn't meant to be a deep-dive but more a snorkeling-dive, to get the conversation going on how we feel about the position/player and what we expect out of them. Please feel free to comment on formatting, stats presented, etc.

2023 Stats

​

Stat	Value	Ranking Among LF*
Games Played	115	28-tied
Plate Appearances	457	23
AVG	.273	9
HR	22	8
RBI	70	13
R	59	23-tied
OBP	.353	9
SLG	.489	5
OPS	.842	5
OPS+	130	5
wRC+	133	4-tied
K%	25.6	28
B%	8.8	19-tied
BABIP	.331	6
fWAR	3.8	5
bWAR	3.6	NA

*Rankings based on LF w/ at least 400 PA (33 total) in 2023. I chose LF since Chas will primarily play LF in 2024 although he split time pretty evenly between LF and CF last year.

Baseball Savant Page

Surprising Stat(s): Chas has a higher SLG than Kyle Schwarber (.474). And as is tradition for an Astro, Chas has the most success when facing a pitcher, SP or RP, for the first time.

What To Look Forward To

We will see Chas be a consistent starter throughout the whole year, and we won't have to read/hear rumors of our manager disliking Chas. Now even with the "Dusty hates Chas" story-line and inconsistent playing time, 2023 proved to be a breakout year for Chas.

Chas had career-high numbers in essentially all major stats, most importantly having an OPS of .769 vs RHP (.645 in 2022). He still feasts on lefties and performs in the clutch, with an OPS of .947 in high lvrge spots. Plus, he's one of the few Astros who actually hits better at Minute Maid than on the road. I think a big part of his 2023 success was his ability to finally pull the ball more, with a career high 42.2% pull rate on batted balls.

And his defense? I don't think it would be shocking to hear that Chas' defense is elite, his OAA in the 87th percentile. Granted his defense seems to be better in center than in left but that's not to say it's poor in left field. He's got good speed and gets a good jump on the ball more often than not. His arm is average at best but in LF that won't be as important as in CF.

What To Be Concerned About

Chas strikes out a lot. I love the guy but he'll hit a nice line-drive double then follow that up with a horrific 3-pitch strikeout in his next AB. However, his 25.6 K% was a career low so maybe that'll improve in 2024. I do believe K's are just a part of Chas' approach and we can expect another K% around 25 but fingers crossed it's lower.

It's also a bit alarming to see Chas' numbers plummet when facing a pitcher multiple times in a game. And I don't mean a slight drop off; I'm talking a plus .900 OPS the first time facing a pitcher to sub .650 OPS after that. I wish I could give you a reason for why that happens but I ain't a professional scout. Does Chas get more aggressive following early success, leading to bad swings and a high chase rate? Do pitchers throw less pitches in the strike-zone knowing Chas' chase tendencies or out of caution? Both? Does it matter if Chas remains over aggressive? Regardless, I'd like to see Chas bump those numbers up to at least around a .700 OPS.

My Prediction/Conclusion

Chas is great in either LF or CF. I prefer him in CF but understand what they are trying to do with Meyers (our next player) and it affords Yordan to remain at DH. An OPS of ~.800 seems to be a fair expectation for Chas, a slash line around .255/.350/.450. And this guy is going to bat in the bottom-half of our lineup. . . . talk about riches. I would love him to be an All-Star but he's going to need to pop off to get national attention. But I love Chas no matter what.

So what do y'all think? Will Chas improve, stay the same, or regress? Where would you put him in the lineup? Will he get a 20/20 season? Thanks for reading and I'll see y'all in the next one. Have a great day and weekend!