2024 Houston Astros Starters: 3B Alex Bregman

Good morning, y'all. Welcome to part 4 of looking at our position players for the 2024 season. We've done Yainer Diaz, Jose Abreu, and Jose Altuve. Today, as the title has given away, we'll be looking at another fan favorite in Alex Bregman. I'm typing this out before diving into his 2023 stats and I am very interested in what I'll find. Last year seemed like a mixed bag for Bregman but was it just me expecting too much from him? So enough of the intro; let's get right into the numbers!

DISCLAIMER: this isn't meant to be a deep-dive but more a snorkeling-dive, to get the conversation going on how we feel about the position/player and what we expect out of them. Please feel free to comment on formatting, stats presented, etc.

2023 Stats

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Stat	Value	Ranking Among 3B*
Games Played	161	2
Plate Appearances	724	1
AVG	.262	11
HR	25	9
RBI	98	3-tied
R	103	2
OBP	.363	1
SLG	.441	13
OPS	.804	9
OPS+	122	9
wRC+	125	3
K%	12.0	2
BB%	12.7	2
BABIP	.270	29-tied
fWAR	4.3	4-tied
bWAR	4.9	NA

*Rankings based on 3B w/ at least 350 PA (32 total) in 2023. Rankings may be off by a spot or 2 due to players being considered 3B even though they played different positions throughout the season but you get the picture.

Interesting Stat: Bregman's OPS when facing SP the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd time are .903, .716, and .775, respectively. I didn't look at this for previous posts but at a glance, Altuve and Abreu also did their best work the 1st time facing the starter. I'll keep this in mind going forward but thinking about the offense last year, this actually does make sense.

Surprising Stat: Bregman has better numbers in PA where he swings at the first pitch vs when he takes it. Altuve is the exact opposite.

Baseball Savant Page

What To Look Forward To

As is the norm for Bregman, his 2nd half (.901 OPS) was stronger than his 1st half (.726 OPS). So let's try not to freak out too hard if he has another slow start, unless it's utterly abysmal. He was our iron-man last year, missing only 1 game which was desperately needed given the time missed by both Altuve and Yordan.

The man has discipline. And to think, his K% & BB% would be better if umps didn't screw him constantly with balls right off the edges. Seriously, I felt at least a quarter of his strikeouts came from balls being called strikes. Regardless, his eye is elite and, say it with me Moneyball fans, he gets on base.

However, the man is affected by pressure . . . . but in the opposite way you'd normally expect. No kidding, Bregman has an OPS of .927 in high-leverage spots vs an OPS in medium and low leverage of .794 and .773, respectively. Essentially, he hits like an MVP in the clutch. And when you count in his good to very good defense (reliable at worst), Bregman is a top-5 3B IMO. He's one of the few remaining players from the old core and seems like a great guy to have in the clubhouse.

What To Be Concerned About

The past couple of seasons, Bregman has done considerably worse facing LHP than RHP. A sub .700 OPS vs lefties in 2023 tells you what you need to know (.850 vs RHP). Man, remember when he feasted on lefties? I 'member. His 2023 AVG exit velocity, barrel% and hard-hit% all took a dip from 2022 and while Bregman has never really shined in those categories since 2018, you don't want this to become a trend. Plus, he's about to 30, and sure I don't expect his power to just disappear this year, but you do have to think about the future because . . .

This is a contract year for Bregman. As of the time of this post, Bregman has not been extended past 2024. This is by far the biggest concern. I don't doubt he deserves to be paid. I mean I just called him a top-5 3B. I just don't know if the Astros are going to be willing to give him what he wants. What does he want? What do we prefer? A shorter contract with a higher AAV? Or a longer contract with a lower AAV? Will his extension/resigning affect Tucker's situation at all? Most of us expect Tuck to walk so why not invest in Bregman? On one hand, keep the core intact. On the other, how many teams have done the same only for the core to inevitably age and overpay for their final playing years?

My Prediction/Conclusion

I think Bregman will have another solid year, in the 4-5 WAR range yet again. High OBP, solid SLG, and great defense. However, the bigger question is does he stay or go? Personally, I'm pretty split, but right now I'm leaning towards Bregman walking. He's gonna want more than what the team will offer him, whether that's in years or dollars. I hope I'm wrong though and both sides can agree on a fair deal.

But what do y'all think? How will Bregman do in 2024? Will he stay or leave? What do you think is a fair deal for both sides? What is he actually worth? How sad will it be seeing Altuve be the only remaining position player from 2017?

Thank you for reading and I'll see y'all in the next post: SS Jeremy Pena.