2024 Astros Starters: 1B Jose Abreu

Good afternoon, y'all! I wanted to kill some time before Opening Day and thought looking at our position starters would be a fun way to do so. The first entry in this series, Yainer Diaz, got a good reception so I hope to give a solid follow-up. Unlike Diaz however, I think we'll be more split on today's player. So enough of the small talk, let's get into it.

DISCLAIMER: this isn't meant to be a deep-dive but more a snorkeling-dive, to get the conversation going on how we feel about the position/player and what we expect out of them. Please feel free to comment on formatting, stats presented, etc.

2023 Stats

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Stat	Value	Ranking Among 1B*
Games Played	141	17
Plate Appearances	594	17
AVG	.237	31
HR	18	22 (tied)
RBI	90	11
R	62	23
OBP	.296	35
SLG	.383	31
OPS	.680	35
OPS+	87	35
wRC+	86	35
K%	21.9	19
BB%	7.1	28
BABIP	.276	30
fWAR	-0.6	35
bWAR	0.0	NA

*Based on 1B w/ at least 400 PA in 2023 (35 total); I had trouble sorting WAR by position on baseball reference which is why I put NA on the rankings. If anyone can help me out with that, I'd be happy to update the chart.

Baseball Savant Page

What To Look Forward To & Be Concerned About

Look, I ain't gonna lie to y'all, I came out of this way less optimistic than I was coming in. I was more patient with Abreu than most last year but even still . . . the numbers paint a rough picture. However, it's not all doom and gloom and I have just enough hopium to believe Abreu can have a DECENT season this year.

Let's just state the obvious: Abreu was arguably the worst starting 1B in 2023. And for the first couple months, the worst MLB hitter in general! We were warned of Abreu's cold starts but this was a damn arctic freeze. Unless you're color blind, the amount of blue and absence of red on his savant page will make you weep. His defense ranges in the slightly-below-average zone (DRS of -1). For extra fuel to the fire, he's now 37 years old and you gotta think not if his power and reaction-time will dip more, but how much it'll dip by. Of course, that's without mentioning how much he's getting paid.

So u/KingJacobyaropa, I hear you ask, where is the hope?! Are we gonna DFA Abreu and resign Yuli to a league minimum salary and run it back?! No, not that. I offer only his 2nd half and playoff performance as a potential sign that he can still play well (somewhat). In the 1st half, Abreu slashed .237/.286/.344 vs in the 2nd half .238/.313/.447. Of course, that's not an amazing upgrade but it's still a big difference. And in the playoffs is where MVP Abreu came out for a bit, slashing .295/.354/.591. I'm not saying Abreu will be that player for the whole year but it's good to see that player is still in there especially when the pressure is higher.

My Prediction/Conclusion

I wish I could say Abreu will bounce back and go off this year but I don't believe that, not fully at least. And I'm not gonna say it can't get worse because it most certainly can get worse. However, I think with a full year in Houston under his belt, and with a manager who will probably give him more days off, Abreu will not be as bad as in 2023.

He'll be MID, perfectly serviceable in 2024. He'll be the Honda Civic of 1B. Give me a season of an OPS+ in the 95-105 range and I'll be happy. Sure, that's not worth what the Astros are paying him but I'm not gonna be that picky. But for all that is holy, please not another 2 months of sub .600 OPS to start the year.

What do y'all think though? Is this a fair expectation for Abreu in 2024? Or am I desperately trying to convince myself that he isn't a lost cause? Will he exceed his 18 HRs from last year? Can he at least hit more doubles to make up for a HR dip? Where do you think Espada will place him in the lineup? Thanks for the read and I hope it was informative.