Month: April 2022

Instead of just individual stats, I think I’ll be looking at the overall efficiency of the offense to evaluate Mills and Pep. Personally I’ll be looking at a few things:

YPC, 3rd down conversion, how often we’re at 3rd and long vs 3rd and short, red zone scoring pct., points per game and TOP. Here’s some comparisons for our average of last year, our last 3 games and what I’d like to see at minimum:

YPC:

Average – 3.4 (32nd)

Last 3 – 4.0

I’d like to see 4.4 YPC this year since they insist this will be a run first offense and looking at Mills’ college tape (he said the first installs have been familiar to what he did in college), the run game will be a big part of the offense. 4.4 ypc would have been top 15 last year.

3rd Down Conversion Percentage:

Average – 39.75% (16th)

Last 3 – 46.15%

I’d like to see us pick up from where we left off but that’s really efficient. It would be 3rd just behind Kansas and Buffalo. However I would still like to see us in the 40%+, being closer to that 46% in oppose to 39%.

Red Zone Scoring %:

Average – 51.35% (27th)

Last 3 – 62.50%

Again if we continue where we left off, we’d be tied with Tennessee for 9th. For reference, Buffalo, who was first, had a percentage of 66.28% so I think 62% is a nice and fair expectation.

PPG:

Average – 16.5 (30th)

Last 3 – 24.3

Definitely need to improve here. 24.3 would have landed us right above Tennessee in the 14th spot. I would like to see ~22 PPG if we’re going to dominate TOP through the run game. That’s ahead of LV (21.8) and behind Baltimore (22.8) which is 18th. Not a high expectation so it’s fair given that it’s a run first offense that still has ways to go. Another thing to note is that at home, we had an average of 20.3 PPG but in away games we had only 12.1 PPG 😬.

TOP:

Average – 28:14 (28th)

Last 3 – 30:36

Our last 3 average would have put us ahead of NE and just behind NO for the 14th spot. The best team in this metric was GB (32:36) so if we have a run first offense then I want to see 30:36 as the floor as we should be improving in most of these metrics.

TLDR: I wanna see us do better by various team metrics including PPG, TOP, 3rd down rate and RZ rate.