2020 Houston Texans Season Preview

2020 HOUSTON TEXANS SEASON PREVIEW Please don’t take everything I say here too seriously, I did one of these a few years ago and it seemed to be well received so here I am again. This is just one person’s (my) opinion on our outlook for the season and roster/W-L as well as a glance at the rest of the AFCS. With that said, this is going to be pretty detailed so I’ll include a TL;DR for those of you who don’t want to read all of it. I’m not very good at formatting so I apologize in advance.Let’s get started.

OFFSEASON CHANGES:

Coaching: There’s been some shuffle in the coaching staff and people’s roles. I’ll stick to the more notable ones in the interest of time.

Offense- During the combine, BoB announced that Tim Kelly will be the primary play caller this season and will be the one relaying plays to Deshuan in the headset. Tim was the OC last year and his role was largely unknown. This year, he has full reign with new weapons and hopefully new ideas. Also, on the offensive side of the ball, Carl Smith is now an offensive consultant and TJ Yates is our new QB coach. We all know and love TJ as the Bengal killer from his time in the league and his primary role is to work on the technical aspects of QB play with the QB room. Everything else on the offensive side of the ball is pretty much the same as it’s been before.

Defense- Romeo Crennel is no longer our acting DC and has once again stepped into the “Assistant Head Coach” role he took up a few years ago when we gave Vrabel the reins to the defense. In his place steps Anthony Weaver. Another former Texan player now in the coaching realm. Weaver has some interesting influences including Wade Phillips, Rex Ryan, and of course, Romeo Crennel. So far, the players have been outspoken about him and have been praising him and his new approach to the defense, siting versatility and freedom. There has also been some shuffle in the position coaches on defense but nothing really too noteworthy. Special teams- Brad Seely is gone after a couple of really solid seasons as Special Teams Coordinator where we went from bottom half of the league to top 5 in several categories. In steps Tracy Smith who has been working with Brad for a long time to fill his shoes.

Players:

Losses- DeAndre Hopkins, DJ Reader, Tashaun Gipson, Angelo Blackson, Jordan Thomas, Jonathan Joseph, Barkevious Mingo, Carlos Hyde

Let’s just rip the band aid off here. Losing Hop sucked. It sucked when it happened, and it still sucks. However, I legitimately think we may have gotten better from having lost him; or at a minimum, we can give people a whole new look to try to defend and attack defenses like we never have before. With the additions we’ve made, that I will go over below, I think we have a lot more threats in more places and can attack different parts of the field than we have previously. DJ Reader was also a huge loss for us. No doubt that we wanted to keep him, but the numbers just would not have worked. Cincy got a good dude and one heck of a NT to start their new era under Burrow and his run stuffing and taking on double teams will be greatly missed here in Houston. In that same vein, we also lost Angelo Blackson, who was a solid contributor on defense in the run game and had some of the biggest plays of the year for us on special teams with his blocked kicks. Tashaun Gipson being cut came as somewhat of a surprise but one I can’t be too angry about. He was hurt for a chunk of the year and didn’t offer too much when healthy, especially at the price we got him for. Jordan Thomas was another surprise cut. A guy with tremendous physical gifts but was really derailed by his injury last year and fell behind Jordan Akins. Jonathan Joseph was another long-tome Texan we let go this offseason and he signed with the Titans. While he had his few moments of greatness last year, the clock has definitely caught up to this guy especially with how fast the league is becoming. Carlos Hyde was a solid player for us last year, but he was very one dimensional and probably asked for more money to keep him than we were willing to give. Barkevious Mingo was the last notable loss we had, and his impact was largely on special teams, but we shouldn’t lose a beat with him gone.

Additions- David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Eric Murray, Brent Qvale, Ross Blacklock, Jonathan Greenard, Charlie Heck, John Reid, Isaiah Coulter

I’ll talk about the additions more in the roster breakdown section below, but I will give a little blurb about each of them here for consistency sake.

In 2016 and going into 2017,David Johnson was regarded as one of the top running backs in the league for his ability to not only run, but to be unmatched in the passing game out of the backfield. Fast forward to 2020 and injuries, poor scheme fit/usage have pretty much changed everyone’s opinion on him to being washed shell of his former self. Needless to say the injuries have probably changed how he plays but the skills are all still there. Brandin Cooks has been traded for high picks a couple times now and this dude just produces everywhere he goes. Obviously, he’s a deep threat, his speed speaks for itself, but where he’s sneakily valuable is crossing the field and at the boundaries (see his catch on the Pats to finish us off in 2017). Cobb is going to be Mr. Reliable for us in the slot. He’s been in the league quite some time and knows the ins and outs of the slot position and should be a reliable safety blanket for Deshaun, especially on third downs. Eric Murray has bounced around a tad as well. Not really good at one thing over another but an all around reliable player which will fit just fine. I’m gonna be honest, I don’t know the first thing about Brent Qvale except he has a cool name so yeah. Onto the rookies. Man does Ross Blacklock excite the daylights out of me. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an IDL move with the purpose and speed that he does. It will be interesting to see how well he can handle pro defensive and offensive schemes but physically he’s already there and incredibly gifted. He can even give us some juice in the pass rush game that Reader wasn’t very consistent with. John Greenard is another guy I’m hype for. This guy has played a lot in college and he’s a pretty polished pass rusher in terms of his technique and his moves. He’s strong and plays with heavy hands. Hopefully he becomes a good rotational pass rusher a la Jacob Martin last year. Charlie Heck, unfortunate name, really cool guy. His dad is an offensive line coach so this guy is going to learn and develop well, especially behind Tunsil and Howard. Hopefully he never sees the field unless someone needs a breather but I’m sure he’ll be able to handle his own. John Reid by all accounts has had a tremendous camp for a rookie. He’s apparently very intelligent, asks great questions and is playing well already. Good to see us hopefully have found a gem in the back end. Isaiah Coulter seems like the new prototype for what the league is wanting out of Wide Receivers nowadays. He’s big, long, and can stretch the field. I was excited when we drafted him for him to learn behind Hop but that’s gone. Will be interesting to see him next year assuming he spends the year on PS.

Scheme: I’ll keep this one short since we don’t really know what we’re getting yet. On offense, I expect a lot of motion, misdirection, and a LOT of 3+ receiver looks a lot like what the Steelers did with AB and Le’Veon mixed in with what the Chiefs do with their motions to generate matchup mismatches. I also hope we get a lot of two back sets to keep defenses off guard with both the run and pass being options. Defensively, I expect some heat in the form of a lot of pressure through bringing in more than 4 rushers more frequently. Rex Ryan had Weaver for a time and that’s one of the hallmarks of a RR defense. Showing a lot of pressure, and sometimes bringing it but other times pulling a lot of guys back and it leaves offenses confused on protections and hot route assignments essentially taking one to two targets off the table for the quarterback. I also hope we get more DB blitzes since we have some speed out there now.

THE 53 MAN ROSTER BY POSITION:

QB(2): Deshaun Watson, AJ McCarron What more needs to be said here other than WE’VE GOT OUR GUY. In case you’ve been under a rock, or in Nashville, Watson signed a PHAT extension keeping him here for the next few years and I think most of us can agree, the FO did a GREAT job negotiating this one in all aspects. We all know who Watson is, the Houston Houdini, the Wizard Watson. His noodly appendage has won us so many games and he will continue to do so. With this new scheme and FINALLY a year of cohesion and consistency on the O-Line, the ball should be coming out quicker and he’ll be even better protected. That means, more completions, more Watson magic, more touchdowns, more wins, 1 2 3 Cancun. In all seriousness though, he deserves all the recognition he’s gotten and will continue to get. Just a tremendous representative of himself, this team, this city, and he’s pretty good at doing the Quarterbacking thing too. AJ McCarron will be backing Deshaun up again this year and he’s honestly one of the better backups we’ve had in BoB’s tenure. He had a great time week 17 and looked pretty good running the offense too. I hope he doesn’t see the field unless we’ve locked up the playoffs but I would be comfortable riding with him for a game or two.

RB(3): David Johnson, Duke Johnson, Buddy Howell I’m not gonna lie, I’m pretty salty Karan Higdon didn’t make the 53. He was by all accounts earning the job but I suspect Howell’s role on special teams gave him the nod. Nonetheless, these are the 3 we’re rolling with and CJ Prosise on the PS from Seattle as well. A deceivingly diverse duo in the Johnsons. David being the bigger, more bruiser type back and Duke being the shifty shot in the arm. Make no mistake, both of these guys aren’t just pass catchers and they aren’t just runners, either. I feel like a lot of people pidgeon hole Duke as just a receiver and that couldn’t be more wrong. Yes his carries were limited, but he made the most of them. He seemed to always get positive yards when he touched the ball and saved our bacon a few times last year. I’m excited to see how they’ll be schemed up to create mismatches and hopefully we see a lot of two back sets with both of them to really put defenses in conflict.

FB(1): Cullen Gillaspia Gilly didn’t see too much time last year but he had one of the biggest blocks of the year on Deshaun’s run to the endzone against the Bills in the playoffs. He’s supposed to be used more this year and an in some intriguing ways so I’m excited to see what more our golden haired boy can do.

WR(6): Will Fuller V, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills,Keke Coutee, Deandre Carter, Steven Mitchell Jr., Isaiah Coulter(IR/PS) I already addressed Hop being gone so let’s not bead a dead horse here. Unless it’s the Colts. First thing’s first, this is a FAST group. Cooks, Fuller, and Stills all ran <4.35s 40 yard dashes and Cobb ran 4.46s so he’s no slouch himself even at his age. That’s the obvious thing about this group. The not so obvious thing about this group is that they’re diverse. They aren’t just a bunch of fast one trick ponies like some teams have. They’re all polished route runners and are capable of making anyone miss after the catch. They’re also an experienced group and should bring some veteran savvy to the offense. Honestly surprised Keke made the team but his strong camp seems to have won the coaching staff over and hopefully he learns a lot from Cobb and puts his mental speed bumps behind him.

TE(3): Darren Fells, Jordan Akins, Kahale Warring Probably one of my favorite groups this year. The mountain that is Fells, insurmountable to DBs and unreachable by LBs. This guy is a matchup nightmare. Big, fast and strong. He knows where to park in zone and is as reliable as it gets in pass pro/run blocking. Jordan Akins might’ve been one of the biggest surprises of last year for us. His ability to shed the first tackler and get more yards than he should was pretty impressive and the guy is just a stud athlete. Speaking of stud athletes. ITS TIME FOR MORE PINEAPPLES. Our water polo project Kahale Warring made the roster over JT and all anyone ever says about Warring is that he could be a monster once he learns the pro game. He’s obscenely athletic and I’m really excited to see how often/how we use him.

OL(9): Laremy Tunsil, Max Scharping, Nick Martin, Zach Fulton, Tytus Howard, Charlie Heck, Senio Kelemete, Brent Qvale, Roderick Johnson There’s only one thing we have to say to describe our OL this year. CONTINUITY. For the first time in a long time, we’re bringing back all 5 starters and that honestly is the biggest relief for Texans fans who sat through the Julie’n Davenport, Oday Aboushi, Chris Clark offensive lines and tried to make them seem respectable. Bookend tackles, a stud center, and solid guards. We’re solid in pass pro and hopefully a year together provides some consistency in the run game which was very up and down last year.

DL(6): JJ Watt, Carlos Watkins, Brandon Dunn, Ross Blacklock, Charles Omenihu, PJ Hall The guy I’m most hype for on our roster is probably Omenihu. This guy was a big play a game pretty much last year and his snaps were so limited. He’s now slated to start opposite JJ and I’m pretty excited for it. He’s spent the offseason training hard and his physical skills of strength, length and speed hopefully will come out to play. On the inside,our big boy Reader is gone and here to take his place are DJ Dunny, PJ Hall and Ross Blacklock (nicknames TBD). I suspect of those 3, Blacklock will see the most time on the other end when Chuck needs a breather.

LB(9): Benardrick Mckinney, Whitney Mercilus, Zach Cunningham, Dylan Cole, Brennan Scarlett, Jonathan Greenard, Peter Kalambayi, Tyrell Adams, Jacob Martin The best dressed position group in the league is back with big money bags and even bigger expectations. All three of BMack, Mercilus and Cunningham have sizeable contracts and the expectations that go along with them are high and we’re definitely going to need more from them in the pass game. Our edge guys Mercilus, Greenard, Scarlett, and Martin are going to have to step up as well. Guarding TE’s RB’s and most importantly, GETTING AFTER QBs. Last year we all saw how anemic our pass rush was after JJ went down so if one or more of these guys step up it will make JJ’s job so much easier and lead to more turnovers. Tyrell Adams is another guy who had a good camp. This is another guy who always seems to be around the ball and if you remember, he caused a couple fumbles for us last year. Glad he made the 53 and excited to see him play.

CB(6): Bradley Roby, Gareon Conley(IR), Lonnie Johnson Jr., John Reid, Keion Crossen, Vernon Hargreaves III, Phillip Gaines, Cornell Armstrong, Michael Thomas(also doubles as a safety) What was a pretty patchwork group last year has turned into a somewhat respectable list of names. Roby is obviously the elder statesman here and he’ll have to back up his new deal. Conley will be on IR to start the first 3 weeks of the season so we likely turn to Lonnie Johnson Jr as our second CB. Lonnie worked with footwork king this offseason and has reportedly have a strong camp. If he put his technique together with how gifted he is physically, there’s no telling how good he can be. The slot position is an interesting one. I figure VH3 will be the main guy here with Reid and Gaines subbing in at various points. Michael Thomas was brought here to be primarily a special teamer but I assume he will get some time in dime/quarter looks.

S(3): Justin Reid, Eric Murray, AJ Moore We’ve been adding and subtracting pieces around Justin since he came to us. We had an answer in Mathieu but Gaine let him walk. 2020 brings us Reid + Murray which should be a solid tandem. Murray is a jack-of-all trades player so his liabilities should be minimal. AJ Moore was another camp star. High energy player who always finds his way to the ball. I assume there will be some sort of rotation with these three and maybe Michael Thomas to preserve Reid’s body.

Specialists (3): LS-Jon Weeks, P-Bryan Anger, K- Ka’imi Fairbairn Not gonna say much here. We know how legendary Weeks is and how vital he’s been to this team over the years. Nobody talks about it but consistent high level long-snapper play makes any special teams unit better. Anger had a really solid year last year. He placed the ball well, got good hangtime when needed, and even boomed a few for some surprising distance. Then there’s our favorite pineapple boi. Kai’imi struggled early last year but really found his stride with the holder change or whatever was going on mentally with him and he was lights out. Looking for this group to continue to hold it down.

THE SCHEDULE (W-L Predictions) I tried not to be too much on the kool aid and give unbiased opinions

Week 1 @ Kansas City (W) Hoping for a super bowl hangover here and being optimistic from the kool-aid. It’ll probably still be a close game, when has Houston sports ever not given us heart attacks? Record (1-0)

Week 2 vs Baltimore (L) I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again now. Lamar Jackson is not a good passer and I will die on this hill. Does that matter when you can outrun everyone or have your receivers be wide open from scheme? Nope. As improved as our defense may be, we haven’t done much to address mobile QBs unless there’s new scheme Weaver is bringing. I expect this to be an L. Record (1-1)

Week 3 @ Pittsburgh (L) The battle of the Watt brothers comes Week 3. I’m not really sold on Pittsburgh offensively even with the addition of Ebron, but their defense per usual seems to be strong. Will probably be another game that’s bad for the blood pressure but I’ll give them the nod since their defense is more of a known commodity. Record (1-2)

Week 4 vs Minnesota (L) This game terrifies me. That defense is going to be disgusting. Ngakoue and Griffen on the line. Kendricks and Barr in the middle. Smith and co on the back end. Such a good team. Will be interesting to see what their offense looks like without Diggs and Stefanski. I think it’s too early in the season for our offense to overcome a defense this stacked. Record (1-3)

Week 5 vs Jacksonville (W) We all know the Jags are sandbagging. W for the good guys. Record (2-3)

Week 6 @ Tennessee (L) I’m gonna go out on a limb and say the Titans making it as far as they did last year was a fluke and that they don’t do enough offensively (scheme wise) to have made any improvement. Clowney is there now though so hopefully our boys give him a day to remember, but we always somehow find a way to lose to the Titans from one cheese play they have so I’ll give us the L here. Record (2-4)

Week 7 vs Green Bay (W) Like many, I was very confused when I saw their draft and I don’t think they’ve done enough to capitalize on Rodgers’s window to win now. They’re a better team than they were two years ago, but not enough improvement from last year to this year on paper for me to warrant giving us an L here. Jaire Alexander is a BEAST though much respect. Record (3-4)

Week 8 BYE Record (3-4)

Week 9 @ Jacksonville (W) See previous Jags game and then remember that God hates the Jags. Record (4-4)

Week 10 @ Cleveland (W) I heard OBJ is a #2 receiver now. He can catch an L on the field too when their defense still isn’t any better. Get well soon, Delpit. Record (5-4)

Week 11 vs New England (W) There’s no telling what the Pats will look like without Tom. Their receivers are still very underwhelming and they still have that classic Pats RBBC going on in the backfield. I trust their defense will be good again, probably good enough to win them some games. But not this one. Record (6-4)

Week 12 @ Detroit (W) I don’t know what to say about Detroit. They seem to always have so much promise but they’re just so dysfunctional from the top down and it makes it really hard to project them, which sucks because I love Matt Stafford. I don’t think they’ve done enough in the offseason to sniff competitiveness, especially not with DeAndre Swift reportedly struggling mightily in camp. Record (7-4)

Week 13 vs. Indianapolis (W) I’ll mention this below, but I’m not sold on Phillip Rivers being an upgrade to Brissett, nor am I sold on that tire fire of a backfield they have with reports of Jonathan Taylor struggling in camp. That defense is still pretty porous and TY Hilton is still public enemy #1 for us but they don’t have much else now that Ebron is gone. Record (8-4)

Week 14 @ Chicago (W) This defense is scary. But then you look at the other side of the ball and see Mitch and you forget how good their defense is. Should be an easy W and some good winter football in the Windy City. Record (9-4)

Week 15 @ Indianapolis (L) Much like the Titans, we always somehow seem to drop a game to Indy even though on paper, we blow them out of the water. This fact, and the fact that Houston sports can never be easy on our arteries, dishes out the L for us. Record (9-5)

Week 16 vs Cincinnati (W) Really excited to see what this team will be in a few years under Burrow, etc. But they’re just too early into the rebuild for them to hang. Take care of DJ Reader plz. Record (10-5)

Week 17 vs. Tennessee Clowney’s return to Houston will be a glorious one. For us. At this point, Henry should be tuckered out from backpacking this team all year and give us a W after all our new pieces have had the year to gel. Record (11-5)

REALLY QUICK AFCS PREVIEW

COLTS I really disliked their moves this offseason, aside from drafting Jacob Eason who I think will be a stud with good coaching (not sure Indy will give him that though). But letting Ebron go, and replacing who was a pretty serviceable starter for them in Brissett with haphazard Phillip Rivers I think were two big downgrades on offense. Getting Armstead from SF was a good boost to their DL but the cost was way too high for the amount of help they need on the back end even with the Xavier Rhodes pickup. Expected Record: somewhere around 6-10/7-9

TITANS Just don’t like how this team is constructed in the context of today’s NFL. A very old school, smashmouth attitude brought by Vrabel that works for them I guess but I don’t think it holds longevity or consistency. Expected Record: 9-7

JAGS Crazy to think they nearly made the Super Bowl in 2017 and now they’re back where they always were, at the bottom of the heap. They definitely have gotten value in the draft but not at positions that improve themselves as a whole. Their receviers are still leaving much to be desired, they cut a first round pick RB for no apparent reason, and they sold their secondary for not too much in return.The front office is still dysfunctional as we’ve seen players talk about. Just need to get rid of the current regime and start over. Expected Record: 4-12

TL;DR The Texans have an extremely talented roster top to bottom and can compete with anyone in the league when fully healthy. The beginning of our schedule is brutal, but I’m confident that with the surprise of new scheme and personnel, especially on offense, e can steal a few wins and go into the meat of our schedule and make some noise. I’m really hoping we shut a lot of doubters up about the Hop/DJ trade, BoB’s GM moves and the whole narrative that we’re an incompetent franchise. Thanks for reading and as always, FTC.